Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe06277a2fe8948cfc2452a04120326bdea6e797be9000d4d1250ef5be2390e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 1,035$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.43 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Yes | 51c | 952.84$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 50c | 793.84$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.73 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 49c | 566.98$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.59 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 51c | 548.67$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.85 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 50c | 462.91$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.05 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…1351backed No | 53c | 375.52$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.42per pick | 48cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…9800backed Yes | 10c | 276.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 15c | 258.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 1,071 | 34.8%373 W · 698 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 245.68$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 910 | 32.6%297 W · 613 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 67c | 234.64$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 389 | 53.7%209 W · 180 L | +21.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 70c | 208.7$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…3be0backed Yes | 50c | 194.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Yes | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0817backed Yes | 52c | 187.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 50c | 160.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Yes | 51c | 153.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 51c | 153.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c0…e4cabacked Yes | 48c | 144.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 36c | 138.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 49c | 132.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 526 | 46.8%246 W · 280 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Yes | 18c | 128.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 41c | 118.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Yes | 51c | 106.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…d5c0backed Yes | 50c | 105.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…72afbacked Yes | 51c | 103.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Yes | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…6c60backed Yes | 50c | 97.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…bb76backed Yes | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Yes | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 49c | 87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…8aeabacked Yes | 46c | 62.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…a22bbacked No | 52c | 56.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 46c | 52.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked No | 51c | 50.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 25c | 49.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 47.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 51c | 47.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…916dbacked Yes | 50c | 45.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Yes | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…6850backed Yes | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +48%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 49c | 38.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 37.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 614 | 37.5%230 W · 384 L | -27.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b1…812bbacked No | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 52c | 30.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x317f…3a7abacked Yes | 50c | 29.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…d692backed Yes | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 48c | 27.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 404 | 50.7%205 W · 199 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 47c | 27.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 676 | 49.4%334 W · 342 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…200abacked Yes | 49c | 26.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…4ff3backed Yes | 50c | 24.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…5704backed No | 52c | 21.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 58c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?this page
- FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime?No won
- Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.