TailMyPicks
Market

Champions League · resolved market

FC Bayern München leading at halftime?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,958 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No54c1,035$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.432,02543.7%884 W · 1,141 L-2.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b4…1483backed Yes51c952.84$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.282142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Yes50c793.84$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.738938.2%34 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No49c566.98$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.598647.7%41 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No51c548.67$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.8529142.3%123 W · 168 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No50c462.91$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.059550.5%48 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26cf…1351backed No53c375.52$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.491090%9 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.42per pick48cpaid+92.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed No53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14122647.3%107 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c5…9800backed Yes10c276.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+56.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes15c258.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.651,07134.8%373 W · 698 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes51c245.68$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3991032.6%297 W · 613 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No67c234.64$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3938953.7%209 W · 180 L+21.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No70c208.7$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.659262%57 W · 35 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d3b…3be0backed Yes50c194.66$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc385…8eb0backed Yes50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c5…0817backed Yes52c187.63$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No50c160.2$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.658658.1%50 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99be…3622backed Yes51c153.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.761560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed No51c153.53$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3711450.9%58 W · 56 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c0…e4cabacked Yes48c144.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf479…0fe3backed Yes36c138.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.014751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No49c132.68$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0752646.8%246 W · 280 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ac…5018backed Yes18c128.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.781145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9787…37dfbacked Yes41c118.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.222931%9 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Yes51c106.44$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.424042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x081f…d5c0backed Yes50c105.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed3…72afbacked Yes51c103.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Yes40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408231.7%26 W · 56 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Yes49c99.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9920655.3%114 W · 92 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…6c60backed Yes50c97.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.491833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb272…bb76backed Yes50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51650%8 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Yes50c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.53441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes49c87$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.653135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-26.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdab…8aeabacked Yes46c62.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.041118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc6c…a22bbacked No52c56.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.184252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Yes38c53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.149348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…51dabacked Yes46c52.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.191540%6 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…086abacked No51c50.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e1d…43debacked No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Yes25c49.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.48350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No49c47.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3910953.2%58 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed No51c47.43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.163663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc568…916dbacked Yes50c45.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8510…e41ebacked Yes49c39.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.393534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x120e…6850backed Yes50c38.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+48%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No49c38.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.55759.6%34 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No74c37.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8961437.5%230 W · 384 L-27.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b1…812bbacked No51c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1105…09d0backed No52c30.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.821747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked Yes50c29.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.551338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3145…d692backed Yes50c29.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes48c27.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1840450.7%205 W · 199 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes47c27.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8167649.4%334 W · 342 L-15.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3182…200abacked Yes49c26.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc1…4ff3backed Yes50c24.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.141154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+38.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce22…5704backed No52c21.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed No58c19.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.328061.3%49 W · 31 L+10.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.