Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bae23c0000478c43f3584e26cce348de11cfbed2b24c760cdb01b3ffe498e18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 53c | 910.12$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.6 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 729.01$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.87 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 32c | 395.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.07 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 70c | 334.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…626abacked Yes | 31c | 332.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 31c | 309.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2054…d6f5backed Yes | 32c | 302.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63e7…3d5cbacked Yes | 33c | 287.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 40c | 272.71$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.01 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 30c | 265.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 55c | 263.4$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 68c | 217.33$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 68c | 190.01$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 68c | 182.77$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 68c | 170.15$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Yes | 45c | 169.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed No | 22c | 129.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed No | 22c | 111$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 32c | 106.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 93.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d3fbbacked Yes | 31c | 76.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 69c | 71.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 26c | 71.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 31c | 70.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 74c | 65.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…e21bbacked Yes | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…ec99backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…63c4backed Yes | 33c | 57.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes | 51c | 57.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 68c | 55.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 22c | 54.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc10…1c00backed Yes | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 71c | 34.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…3896backed Yes | 38c | 30.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked No | 71c | 29.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x616e…a666backed Yes | 80c | 28.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 71c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…7dffbacked Yes | 77c | 15.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime?this page
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?No won
- Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.