Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7beb5e84b9c3cb1f249af6997f4524deb27c9965fbd0eb4f90658db67a7f370a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 78c | 1,492$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.53 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,192$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.37 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 22c | 896.55$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.31 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd096…2f6fbacked Yes | 23c | 845.21$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…6da3backed Yes | 24c | 596.83$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed No | 78c | 493.4$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 42c | 453.87$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.26 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x522d…3913backed Yes | 53c | 443.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 431.04$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.52 | 631 | 50.2%317 W · 314 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Yes | 21c | 426.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +54%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 79c | 421.3$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.81 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 56c | 374.43$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.28 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 77c | 327.84$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.28 | 489 | 47.6%233 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed No | 77c | 306.31$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.2 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…26f1backed Yes | 18c | 264.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 21c | 219$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.01 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 23c | 203.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Yes | 24c | 199.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.94 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 24c | 198.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +243.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 28c | 171$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 78c | 170.61$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 606 | 48.3%293 W · 313 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…d6cabacked Yes | 73c | 162.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 78c | 160$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 402 | 50.7%204 W · 198 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 143.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…8a93backed Yes | 22c | 142.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 139.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 591 | 36.5%216 W · 375 L | -30.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 138.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 79c | 125.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff7…8216backed Yes | 80c | 123.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 22c | 121.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 78c | 111$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 242 | 45.9%111 W · 131 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…5aafbacked Yes | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 77c | 100.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed Yes | 21c | 90.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 9cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked No | 34c | 84.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed Yes | 20c | 81.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…e028backed Yes | 21c | 81.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…5103backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed90…d1ffbacked Yes | 24c | 79.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a1…2a5ebacked Yes | 24c | 77.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…5c55backed No | 78c | 75.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…7bc0backed Yes | 21c | 64.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…032dbacked Yes | 27c | 54.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf230…82d7backed Yes | 33c | 43.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Yes | 41c | 37.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 78c | 32.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 78c | 32.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 78c | 31.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 78c | 31.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…afc4backed Yes | 67c | 28.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 23.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 80c | 22.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 80c | 21.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…e55fbacked Yes | 71c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4aa…4a93backed No | 80c | 16.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 79c | 16.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 72c | 14.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF leading at halftime?this page
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?No won
- FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.