World Politics · resolved market
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf103c45f308d3ee2a5e3ec5c9afac925a8ece13e83f5b818583e326b5ca127f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e96…a75bbacked No | 0c | 100,043$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 8c | 8,677$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…7239backed No | 3c | 8,467$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed No | 5c | 4,097$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 15c | 3,125$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 8c | 2,945$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.56 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 2,937$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 2,720$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.1 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed Yes | 59c | 2,684$1,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 5c | 2,640$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed No | 13c | 2,545$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.92 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 59c | 1,908$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.06 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 1,807$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 3c | 1,621$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,604$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.55 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5365…71fcbacked No | 12c | 1,481$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…c6bebacked No | 14c | 1,458$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.98 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked No | 14c | 1,419$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 71c | 1,400$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 41c | 1,337$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.67 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…36fdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,268$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…7285backed No | 14c | 1,236$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 73c | 1,214$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,122$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.42 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…3c8abacked No | 9c | 972.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 2c | 956.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 5c | 923.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 7c | 920$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 11c | 823.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 7c | 709.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…3608backed No | 42c | 705.47$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 42c | 659.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…0587backed No | 16c | 655.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 6c | 638.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…8eebbacked No | 7c | 613$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 21c | 600.9$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 48c | 556.47$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 6c | 535.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 25c | 530.84$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.34 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6b…7877backed No | 11c | 512.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 34c | 510.63$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6614…39cfbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…2101backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…b0bcbacked No | 11c | 474.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6e…f18ebacked No | 7c | 470.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…f190backed Yes | 77c | 467.8$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…2574backed Yes | 77c | 456.6$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 16c | 451.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 10c | 439.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 5c | 430.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 30c | 421$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…866abacked Yes | 24c | 409$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 8c | 407.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…efffbacked Yes | 43c | 406.26$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 35c | 398.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.29 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff3…33cfbacked No | 26c | 391.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 54c | 390.46$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…9717backed No | 12c | 343.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…9398backed No | 9c | 335.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked Yes | 47c | 295.89$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 36c | 274.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 6c | 256.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…bddcbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…9abbbacked No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b7…1e4abacked No | 44c | 250$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 249.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 242.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…1acfbacked No | 41c | 242.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked Yes | 80c | 236.71$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Yes | 53c | 236.51$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…fb32backed No | 9c | 235.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 16c | 228$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3df…d099backed No | 9c | 225.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…885abacked No | 43c | 225.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f93…0b9abacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 56c | 221.43$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked No | 12c | 220.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…48cabacked No | 19c | 218.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…e04abacked No | 8c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…06bcbacked No | 11c | 195.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 14c | 193.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.08 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…2898backed Yes | 48c | 188.27$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…7ed9backed No | 7c | 185.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…45d1backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d0…5bc1backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…0a6ebacked No | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0587…8161backed Yes | 77c | 169.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 167.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.31 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed No | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…110cbacked No | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes | 74c | 154.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…2528backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…39dfbacked No | 13c | 150.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…3e3abacked Yes | 20c | 150.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…a178backed No | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?this page
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 17?Yes won
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.