World Politics · resolved market
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6cc5745d22cb66941fb202997fd8d7eb2ae447af77ee77f8025b794bf3152d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 14,347$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 4c | 3,879$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 1c | 2,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 46c | 1,770$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.94 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…48cabacked Yes | 50c | 798.89$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 35c | 693.51$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.51 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 452.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 59c | 419.3$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 10c | 418.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes | 73c | 417.91$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…5130backed No | 49c | 361.43$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +213.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…9d7cbacked Yes | 26c | 313.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 12c | 291.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…0177backed Yes | 75c | 265.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 77c | 260.25$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 66c | 229.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 216.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked No | 46c | 210.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 206.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…78aabacked Yes | 51c | 196.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 6c | 191$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 157.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…a859backed Yes | 41c | 147$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 48c | 140.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 69c | 126.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 64c | 111$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 26c | 90.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 52c | 71.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 52c | 65.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…e036backed Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ac…135ebacked Yes | 76c | 58.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192b…a3fcbacked Yes | 56c | 53.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…3c8abacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 28c | 51.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 76c | 49.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…faf1backed Yes | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…905abacked No | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 55c | 40.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked No | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…3616backed Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3efa…2667backed Yes | 44c | 30.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…e2c6backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…0002backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a42…c524backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 31?this page
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?Yes won
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.