World Politics · resolved market
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa57389a876760d4d613486a93baf4c908929eee20336673dc3a4401d5cf2d6a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 4c | 2,467$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 1,378$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.4 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 676.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 4c | 627.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 2c | 576.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 52c | 576.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 72c | 512.92$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 500.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 8c | 452.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 78c | 312.91$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 34c | 289.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a9f5backed Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 10c | 274.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 254.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 52c | 239.31$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 63c | 229.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 73c | 229.65$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 28c | 204.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 43c | 171.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…9d3fbacked No | 24c | 167.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 44c | 160.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 11c | 148.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 74c | 147$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…1d12backed No | 36c | 102.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 98.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 30c | 80.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 51c | 61.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 63c | 55.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0afe…ce17backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +218.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 43.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…975bbacked Yes | 51c | 40.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…46f9backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…c24ebacked Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked No | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 17?this page
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?Yes won
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.