Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e12bbd4b521c30ad48af803fe780cdb20686eb247ab05ae41bb17c269e3d808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94c5…765abacked Yes | 1c | 7,585$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,780$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…67b5backed Yes | 12c | 5,611$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…9cd9backed Yes | 0c | 3,680$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,811$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,621$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 4c | 1,369$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 2c | 1,013$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3072…8604backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…68a9backed Yes | 2c | 962.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…0f5fbacked Yes | 2c | 837.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 807.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…ef00backed Yes | 3c | 736.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 4c | 599.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 573.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…8c7cbacked Yes | 4c | 533.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…04e2backed Yes | 4c | 469.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 2c | 458.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 4c | 394.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 384.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked Yes | 4c | 372.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 6c | 327.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed Yes | 4c | 295.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes | 5c | 265$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…00c1backed Yes | 8c | 254.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…a1dbbacked Yes | 8c | 253.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 250.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…8b69backed Yes | 45c | 167.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…446abacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed No | 55c | 115.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10 ET?this page
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 2 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 3 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 4 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 29 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.