Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b1bcdbbddb9e6fe148ac123a75f5ffd6b5d832449254a30dc9d4505ed974b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 21c | 8,649$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.99 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes | 4c | 6,947$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.26 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…31fcbacked No | 68c | 4,965$3,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 16c | 4,637$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.09 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 18c | 4,553$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.07 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed Yes | 26c | 3,311$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.01 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…31debacked Yes | 15c | 3,122$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,868$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 71c | 2,817$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 42c | 2,500$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ec…a98bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,277$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,103$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.62 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 12c | 2,024$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.31 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…a7e7backed No | 65c | 1,800$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 10c | 1,759$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.98 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…3eefbacked Yes | 14c | 1,703$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.91 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,677$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.4 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 1,602$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.41 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 75c | 1,576$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.52 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 69c | 1,522$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.38 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,505$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.63 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 71c | 1,489$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.23 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 17c | 1,443$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e55…97e7backed Yes | 25c | 1,410$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 17c | 1,328$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.82 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 1,323$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 21c | 1,284$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 77c | 1,224$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.06 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 9c | 1,160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc3…f6d7backed Yes | 11c | 1,108$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 26c | 1,102$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.93 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 11c | 1,078$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.78 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193c…8aeebacked Yes | 9c | 1,040$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 999.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 80c | 990.37$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.01 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…d64ebacked Yes | 15c | 873.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 35c | 859.12$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.69 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 800.25$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…c0efbacked Yes | 6c | 800$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 15c | 800$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…1288backed Yes | 16c | 762.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 760.1$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 10c | 737.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 2c | 730.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 704.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 2c | 693.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 37c | 693.15$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 23c | 599.55$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…9e90backed Yes | 10c | 573.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 12c | 555$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 18c | 526.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…336dbacked Yes | 38c | 525.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 23c | 517$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 78c | 491.03$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 20c | 478.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 34c | 449.97$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 42c | 445.96$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.31 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 34c | 435.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 14c | 373.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…d7b8backed No | 79c | 353.17$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes | 42c | 351.7$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…893cbacked Yes | 21c | 346.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…d1e3backed Yes | 9c | 333.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 319.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 7c | 299.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked No | 69c | 288.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 278$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 37c | 268.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7866…8645backed No | 74c | 265.54$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…fc89backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…0d88backed Yes | 9c | 234.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 21c | 233.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 66c | 229.24$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…8c7cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 80c | 218.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 18c | 213.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8962…4978backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb599…d428backed No | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed No | 71c | 179.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 177.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 12c | 165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes | 7c | 152$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6a…0748backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 31c | 143.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 42c | 140.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…7e8abacked Yes | 36c | 139.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…8aefbacked Yes | 33c | 134.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed No | 67c | 133.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed No | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 32c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…4294backed No | 70c | 115.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd018…4b19backed Yes | 48c | 113.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…a74fbacked No | 66c | 110.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?this page
- Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 2 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 3 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 4 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 29 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.