Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 2 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdabce2100b4ad7311964bdc0cdbf9866773833d6d186e9c48f06da6cec1c315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 8c | 5,060$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.78 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…d218backed Yes | 9c | 4,911$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…31fcbacked Yes | 16c | 4,222$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 79c | 4,150$3,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.54 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 25c | 3,952$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,103$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 12c | 2,834$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.35 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…a8ddbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 4c | 1,644$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…4ea6backed Yes | 31c | 1,619$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.09 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,433$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 24c | 1,336$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.14 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,198$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked Yes | 17c | 929.03$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 9c | 904.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 9c | 871.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 73c | 830.03$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.92 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…87ebbacked Yes | 17c | 815.34$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 3c | 800.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 14c | 750.61$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c5…765abacked Yes | 4c | 719.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 4c | 634.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 4c | 612.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 3c | 574.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked Yes | 17c | 573.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…828bbacked Yes | 18c | 568.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb8…902abacked Yes | 10c | 563.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0392…b242backed Yes | 16c | 527.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 21c | 500$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 17c | 493.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193c…8aeebacked Yes | 20c | 492.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 385.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 76c | 380$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 376.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 344$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca91…9a05backed Yes | 7c | 328.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…7a9dbacked Yes | 9c | 319.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9e…70bcbacked Yes | 6c | 318.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…cd41backed Yes | 21c | 317.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked Yes | 6c | 309$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…ef00backed Yes | 6c | 305$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 20c | 299.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 292.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 75c | 280$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 18c | 273$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f6…6bd7backed Yes | 10c | 258.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 255$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…53c0backed Yes | 12c | 251$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 76c | 245.77$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e66…0cb2backed Yes | 11c | 243.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 206$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 16c | 205.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…7f4cbacked Yes | 19c | 205.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…bc2fbacked Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 15c | 199$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…3dffbacked Yes | 13c | 196.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d09…0852backed Yes | 15c | 196.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…2534backed Yes | 13c | 186.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 16c | 185.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…c4acbacked Yes | 14c | 179.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 15c | 168.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8962…4978backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…ca4ebacked Yes | 15c | 145.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…00c1backed Yes | 11c | 137.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 15c | 129.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…6979backed Yes | 18c | 108.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…5158backed Yes | 19c | 108.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…4252backed Yes | 16c | 105.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 12c | 100.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…5ea3backed Yes | 16c | 92.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60f…6c4bbacked Yes | 20c | 85.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…816ebacked Yes | 16c | 84.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6a…0748backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 17c | 72.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf50a…406abacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…1f0abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 25c | 44.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 2 ET?this page
- Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 3 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 4 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 29 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.