Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6f1157d11136071b20710d14b61c9097e927e424653a41b730e4c2c5ba565e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $651,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $745,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $651,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e8b…1b00backed No | 3c | 49,581$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked No | 17c | 21,794$3,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,765.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…3c51backed No | 1c | 21,751$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 5c | 20,355$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.06 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…3eefbacked Yes | 80c | 17,118$13,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.34 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…9b72backed No | 0c | 12,609$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 73c | 12,217$8,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,280.56 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked No | 3c | 10,510$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…e5bcbacked No | 0c | 10,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 3c | 9,278$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 9,176$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.09 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…bc99backed No | 0c | 8,820$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a4…2eaabacked No | 0c | 6,750$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe400…624fbacked No | 7c | 6,525$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 71c | 5,850$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.98 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c2…ab08backed No | 0c | 5,672$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…a8ddbacked No | 1c | 5,576$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…5dbebacked No | 3c | 5,468$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…d218backed No | 2c | 5,093$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…7b6cbacked No | 1c | 5,086$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee5…7fd7backed No | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 69c | 4,777$3,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.8 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…31fcbacked Yes | 75c | 4,592$3,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed No | 0c | 4,032$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked No | 2c | 3,941$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 3,664$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 45c | 3,498$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.02 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 77c | 3,441$2,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.75 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked No | 70c | 3,369$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 15c | 3,338$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…4ea6backed No | 24c | 2,996$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed No | 8c | 2,988$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.08 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa410…93ffbacked No | 2c | 2,954$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4040…8804backed No | 2c | 2,852$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed No | 3c | 2,850$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa123…1d47backed No | 1c | 2,768$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,744$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.24 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…8115backed Yes | 75c | 2,686$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…9cd9backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 1c | 2,464$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b7…2474backed No | 2c | 2,415$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…1891backed No | 1c | 2,350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 6c | 2,147$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked No | 38c | 2,100$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…0774backed No | 1c | 2,021$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed No | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 78c | 1,834$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.12 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 4c | 1,800$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 23c | 1,749$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.18 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 6c | 1,714$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 18c | 1,692$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 5c | 1,680$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…3ad9backed No | 24c | 1,671$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…04e2backed No | 43c | 1,623$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 68c | 1,610$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.62 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…2bf5backed No | 3c | 1,555$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…0347backed No | 1c | 1,546$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…87ebbacked No | 22c | 1,522$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,502$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed No | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bc…87f3backed No | 2c | 1,475$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 4c | 1,455$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 11c | 1,391$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 65c | 1,385$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.94 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed No | 7c | 1,365$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbd…cc5bbacked No | 2c | 1,349$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 35c | 1,343$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.42 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…dc3ebacked No | 27c | 1,341$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 60c | 1,280$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.33 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…2943backed No | 16c | 1,272$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 24c | 1,261$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 4c | 1,260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…bdafbacked No | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…da1ebacked No | 1c | 1,192$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 64c | 1,165$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.44 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…2534backed No | 2c | 1,164$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked No | 4c | 1,158$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0392…b242backed No | 14c | 1,146$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…4368backed No | 25c | 1,114$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked Yes | 78c | 1,084$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3072…8604backed No | 25c | 1,080$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…ee80backed No | 1c | 1,080$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a5…dd55backed No | 9c | 1,079$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,062$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.46 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1026backed Yes | 79c | 1,061$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 55c | 1,060$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.4 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 78c | 1,031$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.85 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed No | 15c | 1,005$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 76c | 994.79$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.54 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 958.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…c555backed No | 21c | 931.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 77c | 927.7$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.74 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 71c | 899.96$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.99 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 78c | 897.56$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.56 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 78c | 877.41$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.03 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 64c | 874.15$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.65 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?this page
- Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 2 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 3 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 4 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 29 ET?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.