TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6b13…a72b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
152
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST7321.9%16 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+152.5%+$129.16
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$226.7
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+71.1%+$82.51
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$33.96
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$118.7
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$160
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$12
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$79.24
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.99
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$84.99
Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$26
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$366.81
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$175
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$78.8
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$90.23
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$180
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$195
Israel strike on Yemen by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$109.92
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+33.5%+$59.66
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.12
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+129.9%+$64.93
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+40.7%+$61.11
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+554.6%+$120.78
Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.27
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT+96.5%+$74.28
Will Trump announce tariffs on Russia on April 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6.31
Will Trump announce tariffs on India on April 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will Trump's approval rating be 49.0% or higher on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.34
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+43.8%+$15.22
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$15
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$25.33
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$14.63
All 20 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China win the 3rd most medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Will Great Britain win the 3rd most medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+383.2%+$95.79
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$45
Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$16.93
France or UK wins more gold medals?backed UK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$25
Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$25
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT+250.7%+$62.69
Will Erriyon Knighton (USA) win Gold in 200m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will Kenneth Bednarek (USA) win Gold in 200m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Olympic Basketball: USA (-27.5) vs. Brazil Spreadbacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$20.89
Olympic Basketball: Australia vs. Serbiabacked Serbia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+68.5%+$110.17
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST70%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 14, 2024, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 18, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2024, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+111.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Buccaneers vs. Seahawksbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$24.14
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Humble" first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
All 3 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Topuria vs. Hollowaybacked Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.18
Whittaker vs. Chimaevbacked Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT+47.6%+$19.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Democratic sweep?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$69.99
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Sep 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $75m and $85m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$99
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.