Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96ac7b3cd2322768c3c2d4d80c1bf8471f013d267a2b7a1630adf23d56e6e10f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $259,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 5c | 28,949$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.19 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 13c | 10,022$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.18 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 12c | 9,944$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.63 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 6c | 9,200$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…a926backed Yes | 12c | 7,830$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,298$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,871$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.24 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 12c | 3,500$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.32 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…13a2backed Yes | 6c | 3,186$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 15c | 3,038$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +411%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 8c | 2,970$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 8c | 2,904$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.31 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 11c | 2,777$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.47 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 8c | 2,776$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.18 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,494$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…52fcbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 1,783$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 8c | 1,712$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,575$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…dd36backed Yes | 13c | 1,536$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 6c | 1,461$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…a050backed Yes | 14c | 1,442$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 10c | 1,350$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…d6d2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…7795backed Yes | 12c | 967.41$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…85cebacked Yes | 11c | 933.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 932$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 14c | 909.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…b32abacked Yes | 7c | 861.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed Yes | 12c | 834.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a04…7b9bbacked Yes | 10c | 792.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0142…3440backed Yes | 10c | 761.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 8c | 750$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 80c | 648.28$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…cc55backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 12c | 570.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 558.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 540$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 13c | 537.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 434.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 13c | 399.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 8c | 399.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…c9e3backed Yes | 13c | 391.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 10c | 325$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 12c | 316.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 281.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 9c | 279.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 12c | 221$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…4aedbacked Yes | 9c | 219.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 7c | 215$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 200.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…30bebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a07…41eebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb65…f863backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…04cebacked Yes | 12c | 191.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 187.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 167.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…d5bbbacked Yes | 7c | 160.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…9574backed Yes | 13c | 150.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79d5…1b49backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 14c | 138.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 21c | 134.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa191…7facbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 120.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…3dabbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…f192backed Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 17c | 64.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…21e4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…a8c8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.