TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa6a3…5532

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
94
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Nuggets (To Advance)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Knicks (To Advance)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+300%+$1,200
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.64
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+277.1%+$734.21
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,479Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+40.9%+$604.18
Warriors vs. Grizzliesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$38
Magic vs. Spursbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,210Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$623.55
Suns vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$31
Trail Blazers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Celtics vs. Grizzliesbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$35
Clippers vs. Magicbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$52.5
Jazz vs. Hornetsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Celtics vs. Sunsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$70
Grizzlies vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Timberwolves vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+288.1%+$160.29
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+75.4%+$57.74
Pistons vs. Bucksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$160.84
Cavaliers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2024, EST-100%-$672.09
Heat vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$516Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2024, EST+61.3%+$316.13
All 21 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.7
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+316.6%+$303.84
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
Blue Jays vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,533Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,533.45
Padres vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT+101.5%+$203
Astros vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$377.5
Astros vs. Rockiesbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+48%+$141.89
Padres vs. Philliesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$91.12
Twins vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+37%+$52.28
Angels vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.93
CHC Cubs vs. ARI Diamondbacks March 30backed Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT+99.9%+$50.96
All 11 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2025, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$68.96
Hurricanes vs. Sabresbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Bruins vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Panthers vs. Canadiensbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Sabres vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Stars vs. Krakenbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$39
Predators vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$63.89
Maple Leafs vs. Ducksbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+59.8%+$299.24
Stars vs. Oilersbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$44
Bruins vs. Ducksbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-33.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cabral Libii win the Cameroon Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$62.48
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$955Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$955.36
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.09
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,962Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+38%+$746.45
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,010Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+28.7%+$289.82
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,885Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$1,064.18
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$4,406Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,405.77
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Michigan State vs. Auburnbacked Michigan State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Alabama vs. Dukebacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$50
Texas Tech vs. Floridabacked Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$46
Ole Miss vs. Michigan Statebacked Michigan State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+85.5%+$170.91
Arkansas vs. Texas Techbacked Texas Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$101.18
All 5 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFLlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+50.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+203%+$201
Saints vs. Ramsbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.4
Packers vs. Broncosbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$78.87
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennislast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open, Qualification ATP: Harry Wendelken vs Stefano Travagliabacked Stefano Travaglia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
US Open, Qualification ATP: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garinbacked Cristian Garin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$485.59
Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$234.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+82.1%+$148.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$28.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will egg prices drop this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+28.1%+$137.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Texas beat Arkansas?backed Arkansas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$235.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get more than 15m views on day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$4,766Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,766.38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.