Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf2193cd6b091db90642fb9b9fd7f3c4a1c280373357081ec68c9841e864b207

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 20, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,166,200
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,048,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,166,200 — the venue’s figure.

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Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0584…de3ebacked Yes	50c	75,894$38,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38,139.95	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No	53c	46,619$24,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,048.83	93	34.4%32 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes	38c	41,060$15,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,656.18	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-5.2wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes	45c	20,388$9,087 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,087.41	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+3,440.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes	56c	17,857$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No	46c	15,316$6,972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,344.28	165	35.8%59 W · 106 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	0c	12,755$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.99	149	4.7%7 W · 142 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed Yes	51c	10,965$5,631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,630.79	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes	54c	10,909$5,859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,859.24	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-5.6wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed Yes	50c	10,378$5,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,148.5	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	2c	10,000$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes	45c	10,000$4,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,500	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Yes	52c	10,000$5,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,215.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	34cpaid	+82.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes	54c	10,000$5,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,400	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes	15c	9,196$1,342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,342.36	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+1,305.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…5f15backed Yes	39c	8,150$3,191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,191.21	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.20per pick	43cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed No	52c	8,150$4,217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,932.55	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes	36c	7,670$2,776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,775.99	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20c7…50c9backed Yes	0c	7,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No	48c	7,500$3,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,900	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	52c	6,162$3,204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,204.05	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Yes	46c	6,123$2,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,824.67	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	-5.0wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a95…686cbacked Yes	44c	5,870$2,585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,585	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Yes	51c	5,787$2,929 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,929.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked No	46c	5,277$2,428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,849.39	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+252.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes	41c	5,209$2,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,135.84	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked No	47c	5,000$2,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,660	59	25.4%15 W · 44 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes	48c	4,703$2,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,245.05	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-5.4wins	-0.18per pick	65cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0826…bcbcbacked No	50c	4,654$2,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,334.35	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9f…8e3abacked Yes	29c	4,501$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300.32	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0663…4a2bbacked Yes	53c	4,474$2,371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,371.37	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes	51c	4,193$2,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,150.72	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes	22c	4,158$923 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$922.6	105	33.3%35 W · 70 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes	43c	4,113$1,780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,779.84	146	32.2%47 W · 99 L	-8.6wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No	70c	4,000$2,780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,219.96	180	36.7%66 W · 114 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Yes	53c	3,774$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Yes	53c	3,640$1,929 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,929.22	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked Yes	55c	3,610$1,998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,998.26	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No	54c	3,542$1,905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,636.85	278	28.1%78 W · 200 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c3…d2d7backed Yes	9c	3,442$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No	57c	3,347$1,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,447.08	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+104%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes	43c	3,227$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400.42	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…f175backed Yes	47c	3,216$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes	39c	3,187$1,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,239.15	134	13.4%18 W · 116 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes	53c	3,167$1,690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,690.4	315	34%107 W · 208 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes	38c	3,098$1,179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,179	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes	14c	3,069$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.05	143	30.8%44 W · 99 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a73…616cbacked No	49c	3,063$1,501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,562.64	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes	24c	2,750$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.96	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.35per pick	32cpaid	+92.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes	14c	2,729$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.71	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No	54c	2,690$1,441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,249.46	190	43.7%83 W · 107 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	20c	2,676$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.2	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes	50c	2,623$1,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,323.77	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-28%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…55c3backed Yes	31c	2,604$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$817.21	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3c…139fbacked No	49c	2,595$1,278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,316.64	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5445…4e0bbacked Yes	49c	2,540$1,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,238.8	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc891…1917backed Yes	54c	2,507$1,358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,358.06	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	65c	2,433$1,573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$860.07	199	57.3%114 W · 85 L	+6.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa73…b07cbacked Yes	20c	2,426$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No	59c	2,330$1,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$959.78	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf2a…8d43backed No	51c	2,300$1,184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,115.96	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.32per pick	48cpaid	+69.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00f8…36e2backed Yes	7c	2,213$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.44	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed No	46c	2,203$1,013 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,189.58	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1515…4320backed Yes	41c	2,198$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$898.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes	29c	2,010$586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$586.1	284	30.3%86 W · 198 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes	56c	2,000$1,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,120	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.15per pick	41cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No	50c	1,998$989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008.99	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x390a…69a6backed Yes	38c	1,927$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.81	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f6…cce7backed Yes	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-3.0wins	-0.30per pick	70cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfef…6021backed Yes	50c	1,844$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+75.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No	61c	1,835$1,112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$723.37	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8318…e497backed Yes	51c	1,785$902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$901.93	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes	46c	1,726$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$786.5	261	39.8%104 W · 157 L	+16.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	53c	1,649$873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$873.39	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-5.4wins	-0.16per pick	39cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes	9c	1,629$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	110	17.3%19 W · 91 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	51c	1,607$815 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$792.38	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-7.0wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No	54c	1,526$820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$705.59	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No	50c	1,519$766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$752.42	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No	55c	1,513$836 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$676.49	112	22.3%25 W · 87 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338e…0945backed Yes	53c	1,497$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ac2…9895backed Yes	56c	1,429$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	1c	1,422$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f8…8cadbacked No	49c	1,419$696 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$722.85	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes	14c	1,407$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.57	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x457a…44debacked Yes	35c	1,379$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.07	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60a…da21backed Yes	42c	1,360$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$568	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	+251%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes	51c	1,357$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.9	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	-18.7wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No	44c	1,299$572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$727.44	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+5.2wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+31%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b84…ce7abacked Yes	26c	1,261$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.13	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+1,487.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…c5f8backed No	52c	1,242$646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$596.11	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x624f…0d08backed Yes	7c	1,239$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.19	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa433…c167backed Yes	8c	1,233$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	49c	1,201$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.83	884	48.5%429 W · 455 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	40c	1,200$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5674…15c2backed Yes	51c	1,200$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.28	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes	51c	1,200$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.99	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-3.8wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-39%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4606…2e10backed Yes	53c	1,195$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.32	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes	35c	1,143$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4611…4411backed Yes	6c	1,135$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event