Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ec056d5b1c7793835a46928ca3db97f1df589765e099964b04215d12db65250

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 20, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $842,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $663,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $842,587 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2efd…be4cbacked No	78c	51,076$39,839 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,236.72	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a53…d226backed Yes	22c	51,076$11,237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,236.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes	1c	43,114$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.92	93	34.4%32 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b84…ce7abacked Yes	13c	26,776$3,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,365.94	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+1,487.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes	2c	16,818$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.19	101	27.7%28 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes	2c	15,352$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.18	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes	1c	15,330$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.65	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-5.2wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes	1c	15,142$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.96	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+1,305.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20c7…50c9backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	1c	12,886$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.26	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb1…1129backed Yes	0c	11,880$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	10	0%0 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed Yes	4c	11,020$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.29	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes	6c	9,385$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.83	134	13.4%18 W · 116 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	4c	8,418$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.71	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes	2c	6,873$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.18	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4db6…9842backed Yes	2c	6,832$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	2c	6,784$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.12	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes	13c	6,022$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$801.3	59	25.4%15 W · 44 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes	2c	5,863$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.63	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c39…b7a6backed Yes	2c	5,757$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3d…1fc6backed Yes	2c	4,165$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.06	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	27cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes	1c	4,003$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.72	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes	1c	3,439$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.7	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes	1c	3,159$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.85	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	2c	2,939$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.88	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	1c	2,472$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.66	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x465e…a4e2backed Yes	3c	2,300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	3c	2,217$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.57	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes	2c	2,168$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68e9…05afbacked Yes	6c	2,000$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes	4c	2,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+285.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa673…5197backed Yes	5c	1,940$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa51f…b1bfbacked Yes	4c	1,819$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes	4c	1,577$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.25	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ad…2582backed Yes	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes	10c	1,491$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.85	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1aad…790dbacked Yes	2c	1,475$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+4,661.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes	8c	1,452$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.6	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes	2c	1,350$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.95	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	2c	1,344$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.61	203	25.6%52 W · 151 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes	21c	1,194$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.81	87	26.4%23 W · 64 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	+258.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd994…7082backed Yes	2c	1,189$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.54	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	1cpaid	+12,400%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	3c	1,099$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.77	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+104%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes	2c	1,052$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.62	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f3…a8a3backed Yes	1c	1,030$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes	1c	999.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	197	42.6%84 W · 113 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa888…33edbacked Yes	6c	968$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.02	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d37…591fbacked Yes	1c	893.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57f8…330abacked Yes	2c	877.15$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.54	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ecf…a044backed Yes	6c	859$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf182…d673backed Yes	2c	834$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.51	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8675…f26abacked Yes	3c	830$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.58	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee0…aa33backed Yes	3c	829$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe164…340bbacked Yes	2c	825.82$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+2.2wins	+0.36per pick	14cpaid	+97.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ac…57abbacked Yes	2c	807.9$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3547…ea53backed Yes	3c	801$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfff2…15b9backed Yes	1c	793.23$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0633…b84bbacked Yes	2c	780$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x941b…039bbacked Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes	23c	757.95$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.13	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d09…49b9backed Yes	2c	727.15$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+2,857%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd35…12e3backed Yes	3c	716$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb1…e240backed Yes	2c	711$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56e6…d7f2backed Yes	10c	683.76$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.38	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes	7c	677.06$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.12	125	6.4%8 W · 117 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes	2c	670.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.33	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5684…32a2backed Yes	3c	658$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…589cbacked Yes	9c	657.37$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ea…a355backed Yes	2c	637$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc748…6659backed Yes	2c	634$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes	11c	620.88$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.86	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes	14c	619$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.37	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20d…2e4abacked Yes	3c	618$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e93…5a31backed Yes	2c	614$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21be…72dcbacked Yes	2c	604$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes	6c	600.35$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.59	67	32.8%22 W · 45 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	5c	599.98$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.14	347	26.8%93 W · 254 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	15c	593.5$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.78	278	28.1%78 W · 200 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde00…aab2backed Yes	2c	593$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24c5…18b8backed Yes	2c	581$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	18c	578.66$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.84	482	24.7%119 W · 363 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes	2c	571$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	78	6.4%5 W · 73 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4afd…33babacked Yes	2c	560$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes	13c	559.88$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.33	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcedd…7132backed Yes	2c	531$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf29a…583ebacked Yes	6c	530$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Yes	15c	526.79$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.18	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8045…df7abacked Yes	3c	521$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88ab…c7c0backed Yes	3c	518$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e09…403dbacked Yes	3c	502.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	14c	500.01$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.86	175	24.6%43 W · 132 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa666…8c8cbacked Yes	2c	493$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d1…cbd8backed Yes	6c	479$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e16…e404backed Yes	2c	479$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcbc…29bbbacked Yes	3c	441$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	431$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.64	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa429…c60cbacked Yes	10c	427.78$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.78	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	4c	400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	101	8.9%9 W · 92 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+115.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event