TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xed95…b1e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
190
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: F1, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category F1 at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST3225%8 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+196.8%+$131.24
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$460
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+54.4%+$69.67
Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.25
Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.23
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $17m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23m and $26m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.86
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $26m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$118.57
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20m and $23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$160.93
"The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT+162.6%+$19.52
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $145m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+43.6%+$6.1
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$215.14
"Fantastic 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is below 80%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$20.67
"The Fantastic Four: First Steps" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80–89%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+35.2%+$41.18
Will "I Know What You Did Last Summer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $14-16m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$243.59
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$486.95
Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–89?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+68.1%+$28.62
Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70–79?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$632.34
Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $46m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.32
Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $38-42m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.08
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $23-26m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.26
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+38.3%+$98.96
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT3016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+261.2%+$113.14
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.54
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$13.83
Will Spain airdrop aid into Gaza?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.89
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+72.2%+$222.63
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+58%+$60.66
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+165.2%+$342.52
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$269.85
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$144
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$647Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$646.61
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,886Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,885.81
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.3
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.4
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.25
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$124.04
Israel strike on Iran on June 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$161.48
Israel strike on Iran on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.55
Israel strike on Iran on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$142.37
Israel strike on Iran on June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Another Israel military action on Yemen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$339.14
Israel strikes Iranian oil in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$316.55
Israel strike on Iran on June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.45
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,014Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,014.19
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST2748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+45.5%+$11.83
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.31
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.01
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT+259.8%+$76.3
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$160.96
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+242.3%+$600.09
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+127.4%+$299.26
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+36.7%+$10.18
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.38
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.69
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.5
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.59
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$766Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$766.48
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+64.8%+$9.35
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+89.9%+$236.9
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+150.2%+$127.16
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+156.5%+$274.55
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$334
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.29
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+91%+$34.75
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+84.9%+$472.95
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$849Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+130%+$1,103.65
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+64.7%+$10.73
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+185.7%+$218.62
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+433.4%+$377.07
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.21
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.53
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$183.3
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$62
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.18
Yoon out of custody by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.62
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.3
Yoon in jail before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,303Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,303.06
Yoon arrested before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.9
Yoon arrested by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.29
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+211.3%+$178.27
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+206.3%+$71.16
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$247.92
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.5
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$525.33
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+250%+$1,337.54
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$5,692Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+276.7%+$15,748.19
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$731Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$731.39
All 22 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.6
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.92
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+153.7%+$113.25
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+74%+$10.34
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+110.1%+$32.67
Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.35
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+58.6%+$24.58
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.32
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.6
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+191.7%+$150.67
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.2
Trump and Putin shake hands by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+73.6%+$19.15
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$844Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$844.42
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,098Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+40.9%+$449.39
All 16 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. PSG – Both Teams To Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$253.38
FIFA Club World Cup: Dortmund vs. Monterrey (To Advance) backed Monterrey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.31
Dortmund vs. Monterrey: 3+ Goals Scored?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$27.5
Will Kenan Yildiz be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.72
Real Madrid vs. Juventus: 3+ Goals Scored? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$570.01
FIFA Club World Cup: Manchester City vs. Al Hilal (To Advance)backed Al Hilal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+726.2%+$130.57
Manchester City vs. Al Hilal: 3+ Goals Scored?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.4%+$22.45
Will Borussia Dortmund win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$96.47
Will Inter Miami beat Palmeiras?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.42
Will Atlético Madrid win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.43
Will Al Hilal beat RB Salzburg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$145
Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 13 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylovbacked Kopylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.93
UFC 318: Phillips vs. Oliveirabacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$30.41
UFC 318: Prado vs. Veretennikovbacked Prado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.7
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Garciabacked Garcia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+65.5%+$165.69
UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. Charrièrebacked Landwehr · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.03
UFC Fight Night: Griffin vs. Curtisbacked Curtis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+34.5%+$40.36
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Walkerbacked Nzechukwu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$92
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-Francebacked Kara-France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
UFC 317: Royval vs. Vanbacked Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+85.8%+$113.28
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicanobacked Dariush · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$85.96
UFC 317: Hermansson vs. Rodriguesbacked Rodrigues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$56.67
UFC 317: Araujo vs. Cortezbacked Araujo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 12 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Chess — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.5
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.66
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.38
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.45
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.88
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,145.14
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$674Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+130.2%+$877.66
All 8 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+188.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Brewersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Cardinals vs. Piratesbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Braves vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.58
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+117.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+87.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+117.9%+$113.25
Will Obama endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+56.8%+$11.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Poland beat Finland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$131.73
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$62.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+183.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ethereum all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+183.8%+$33.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The MongolZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$128
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.