Chess · resolved market
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe40cbf34d662ff5326b887c823572bbd55217eaaddf5d584c8f9c21fad9975d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes | 39c | 9,598$3,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,698.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 70c | 7,125$4,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.7 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,026$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Yes | 11c | 1,471$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 36c | 1,151$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.31 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 5c | 631$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…923fbacked No | 68c | 442.88$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 28c | 374.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 352.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 30c | 293.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…bc22backed No | 64c | 262.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 6c | 247.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 240.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 58c | 210.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 13c | 200.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…6ac0backed Yes | 51c | 195.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 36c | 150.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…1945backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 36c | 109.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed Yes | 47c | 72.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Yes | 33c | 61.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…4c19backed Yes | 36c | 54.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 67c | 54.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked Yes | 36c | 32.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…f4fdbacked Yes | 50c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Anish Giri win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Ivan Saric win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?Yes won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will R Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.