TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5260…fd71

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
159
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$61
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.84
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.9
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.21
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$12.41
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+77%+$87
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.03
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.69
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+88.7%+$42.77
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+488.2%+$402.55
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+108.9%+$121.47
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+78.3%+$49.2
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+127.3%+$28
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.58
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$233
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$41.01
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$31.15
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$85.03
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$281.78
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2528%7 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$252
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.9
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.7
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.55
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.5
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.86
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.9
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$53.2
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+136.2%+$85.78
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$53
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$53
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Will England win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will France win on 2026-03-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+129.9%+$161.15
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.07
Will Brazil win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$36.49
All 25 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT2330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$33
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+237.2%+$87.23
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$33.14
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23.22
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$59.78
Will Saif Ali Khan be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10.03
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$34.8
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$39.15
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$42.86
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30.43
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+147.7%+$52.99
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$29.5
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+81.8%+$13.5
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$60.1
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$54.08
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15.01
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+33.7%+$18.65
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+39.4%+$71.72
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+32.2%+$27.07
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20.57
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$65.28
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$267
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$61
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+134%+$377.97
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+79.4%+$84.38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$81
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.56
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+243.8%+$30.85
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.48
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.51
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.49
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+113.3%+$267.06
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.92
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$356.8
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$29.28
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+81%+$73.79
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+52.5%+$67.06
All 22 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.03
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.19
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.66
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.37
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.21
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.87
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+202.9%+$466.86
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+293.9%+$191.75
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+58.4%+$192.03
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+86.9%+$341.49
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+37%+$10.8
Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.75
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.01
All 16 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.86
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.7
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.28
Will Wesley So win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.48
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.2
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+114.6%+$26.7
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.83
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+60.3%+$30.08
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+82.8%+$9.59
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 15, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$153.63
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+398.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Flamengo beat Chelsea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+398.3%+$43.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+69.5%+$9.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$83.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+37%+$10.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$90.52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.