Earnings · resolved market
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca3f4b688bce03a24747d339ff30aa2cf45fff9addfd43ea11e1f20689ae091b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 74c | 2,538$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.73 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 1,873$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.36 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…2308backed Yes | 69c | 1,198$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 15c | 1,050$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.93 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed No | 10c | 999.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 2c | 920.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 77c | 543.33$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 67c | 526.69$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.81 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 9c | 482.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked No | 15c | 410.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 25c | 393.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 67c | 353$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…d48bbacked No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 15c | 243.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 33c | 220$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09f2…f720backed No | 7c | 212.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 15c | 203.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…5b3ebacked Yes | 79c | 201.85$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 11c | 199.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 196.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 16c | 132.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 19c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed No | 13c | 110.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…0239backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…3655backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 13c | 95.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…710ebacked No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f0…e696backed No | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…cda2backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…9ceabacked No | 32c | 49.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 32c | 35.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…f36bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…4f3ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…c47fbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.