TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e9e…5f7f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
136
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst World Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT3253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+48%+$28.61
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+156.5%+$20.74
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$81
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.85
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.98
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$54
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$76
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$47.73
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+79.1%+$53
Will Jeremy Allen White be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+127.4%+$70.59
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$12.19
Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+96.6%+$219.57
Will Daniel Day-Lewis be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+104.1%+$152.48
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+85.2%+$23.48
Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$97.12
Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.7%+$51.24
Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$161.03
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$124.83
Will A House of Dynamite be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$24.91
Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$125.02
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3164.5%20 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$150
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$176
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$145
Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.74
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+488.2%+$83
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+25%+$4
Will exactly 58 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.42
Will exactly 57 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+27.3%+$89.9
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+137.3%+$88.89
Will Mike Bloomberg endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$46.3
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$307.83
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$162.57
Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$100.57
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on October 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$26.95
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on October 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+31.1%+$32.07
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+114.6%+$157.52
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+101.7%+$51.58
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,286Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+38.7%+$498.03
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+40.2%+$122.72
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+36.9%+$98.38
Will Trump say Thousand / Million / Billion 10+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$271
Will Trump say Fake news during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.92
Will Trump say Hell during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$27.16
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-45%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.42
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$164.09
Will turnout be between 75% and 78% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+32.7%+$34.01
Will turnout be at least 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60.3
Will Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) be part of the next Government of the Moldova?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$31.88
Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 29 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10.71
Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.94
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$271.76
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$407.37
Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+33.7%+$27.97
Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+49.9%+$66.32
Will Piráti get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Piráti get between 11% and 14% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Will Motoristé get between 7% and 9% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$14.61
Will STAČILO! get between 5% and 8% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$63
Will SPD get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.27
Will ANO get between 30% and 33% of the vote in the Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$38
Will turnout be between 63% and 66% in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.14
SPOLU wins 20% or more of vote in Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Pirates wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+129.9%+$110.54
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.42
All 22 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$48
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+37%+$54
Will Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$50
Will Abbott Laboratories (ABT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$154
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$64
Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$48
Will Constellation Brands (STZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$48.32
Will Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$37.92
Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$192
Will Carnival Corporation (CCL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.69
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+55.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+89%+$104.66
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$44.3
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+142.4%+$58.75
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$50.99
Will Google have the second best AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.11
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+148.3%+$59.72
Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+39.3%+$86.52
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+94%+$128.11
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$605Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+82.1%+$496.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+47.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 16, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$111.37
Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$27.93
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+50%+$33.34
Will Zama launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+79%+$39.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$74.27
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.