Earnings · resolved market
Will Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46396867efc69c36b9ece504df9b8f9716658e30a0890920ed355b1ca681d9c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 25c | 3,348$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.26 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 1,166$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 25c | 1,000$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.52 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 72c | 769.35$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 77c | 758.79$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.22 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 80c | 712.98$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.49 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed Yes | 76c | 687.37$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…3495backed No | 54c | 466.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 403.56$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d3…86f1backed No | 30c | 335.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 73c | 300.21$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed Yes | 73c | 272.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked Yes | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 201.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223e…43c7backed Yes | 76c | 190.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 27c | 168.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…afdbbacked Yes | 74c | 141.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…cdffbacked Yes | 71c | 141.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…bfa8backed Yes | 76c | 136.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 73c | 126$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 119.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…b35abacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…3655backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 92.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…c4edbacked No | 25c | 91.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 64c | 85.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…fb5dbacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 69c | 73.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 71c | 68.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 44c | 56.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…eea1backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddac…71cebacked No | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb4…23adbacked Yes | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…978ebacked Yes | 70c | 41.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…cda2backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…1465backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…4f3ebacked Yes | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Yes | 73c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb757…8ea9backed Yes | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 71c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.