Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate one time before election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x168ea105fdaca9d81ad0b4d4bd99c884d6248d775b7071a7c370bd875e28cd8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 1,620$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 21c | 927.27$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 19c | 760.66$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…2cdbbacked No | 59c | 245.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 177.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed Yes | 16c | 104.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate one time before election?this page
- Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate five times or more before election?No won
- Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate three times before election?No won
- Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate two times before election?Yes won
- Will Cuomo x Mamdani not debate before election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.