TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x019a…7df0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
137
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 57 out of 100; worst Premier League at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST2222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.87
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$38.2
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$24.8
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13.34
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15.97
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$29.4
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15.22
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+700%+$112.25
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$72.89
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+30.2%+$23.2
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+37.6%+$37.55
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$56
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$50.4
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$22.32
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$27.3
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+159.8%+$61.51
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+56.2%+$19.61
All 22 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST1631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$95.7
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+61.2%+$159.4
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+88.7%+$162.15
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$210.29
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$120.13
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$139.85
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$17.11
Will Liverpool FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+114.9%+$69.5
Will Juventus win Group G at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Benfica win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$75.24
Will Flamengo win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$51.43
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance)backed Arsenal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Robert Lewandowski be the top Champions League scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.62
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+657.6%+$1,955.51
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$92.4
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$358.76
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+170.3%+$95.76
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,185Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+50.6%+$599.44
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+47.1%+$64
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+155.7%+$378.78
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.48
Will ANO get more than 36% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.36
Yoon in jail before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$435
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+142.1%+$490.25
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.6%+$26.31
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.51
Will Israel not announce ceasefire in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$17.28
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$129.99
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$329
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$376.83
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$53
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.31
All 13 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-72%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Premier League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Liam Rosenior be the next Chelsea manager?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$44.6
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60.82
Will West Ham win on 2025-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+264.4%+$161.93
Will Leeds United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$14.4
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$82.85
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$40.8
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$141
Will Fulham win on 2025-08-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.47
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$11.6
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 2–6 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+123.3%+$24.9
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.57
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.67
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$129.15
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+139.5%+$525.38
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+102.5%+$41.02
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+63.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+25%+$20
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+29.2%+$47.5
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+29.9%+$20
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+83%+$304.42
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+62%+$64.72
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+44.9%+$31
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$77.77
All 8 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid+23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-11-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+525%+$336
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$7.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate one time before election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.