Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc9a89cbb1c02ac468c1f7f8fd2cf56c4713faf8d3c97577452c58f4b69c29b5

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,210,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $681,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,210,239 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	69,663$1,107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,107.08	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	2c	65,588$1,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,075.39	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes	2c	53,655$984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$984	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	13c	46,121$6,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,173.4	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	23c	17,379$3,914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,914.23	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	15,995$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.59	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	4c	13,048$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.4	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	15c	12,142$1,819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,818.57	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Yes	9c	11,159$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc10d…4532backed Yes	1c	10,856$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	1c	10,500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe7…2229backed Yes	3c	10,406$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.74	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+13%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424a…1b92backed Yes	0c	10,010$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	10,000$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	74c	9,874$7,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,534.28	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	9,680$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.31	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…8833backed Yes	0c	9,464$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	0c	8,770$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	19c	8,000$1,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,550	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf19e…8eaabacked Yes	0c	7,702$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	11c	7,130$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$798.34	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x408c…8816backed Yes	2c	7,063$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.68	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	5c	6,511$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.59	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	4c	6,288$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	30c	6,084$1,812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,811.57	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes	26c	5,950$1,539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,539.48	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4076…f867backed Yes	9c	5,819$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	5,418$886 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x034b…00b8backed Yes	3c	5,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.41per pick	9cpaid	+226.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46ef…7ecbbacked Yes	5c	4,920$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.29	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	3c	4,736$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.53	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes	5c	4,706$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.04	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	13c	4,558$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.21	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	8c	4,459$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.51	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	0c	4,400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,176$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.63	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	3c	4,117$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.63	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes	4c	4,028$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.69	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes	1c	4,020$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6859…3308backed Yes	14c	3,901$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.34	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	19c	3,723$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	7c	3,423$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	3,254$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.75	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	14c	3,200$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80b5…9631backed Yes	5c	3,168$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	3c	3,166$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.97	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Yes	4c	3,028$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.13	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	28c	3,005$836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$835.57	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes	29c	2,719$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$798.22	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d41…4ba0backed Yes	32c	2,700$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.59	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc90b…cb24backed Yes	13c	2,687$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.14	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	3c	2,682$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.4	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	27c	2,637$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.54	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	19c	2,542$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.93	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e98…a8e6backed Yes	28c	2,500$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-32%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	3c	2,451$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.28	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	14c	2,384$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	7c	2,257$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.32	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b63…1147backed Yes	27c	2,256$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-74.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x464b…8c05backed Yes	4c	2,214$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6516…2a72backed Yes	31c	2,208$687 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,129$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes	10c	2,058$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.34	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	17c	2,047$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes	20c	2,032$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-56%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes	22c	2,016$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.72	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	20c	2,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	1c	1,944$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	9c	1,906$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	2c	1,870$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.26	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	1,832$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.2	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41ed…d733backed Yes	24c	1,819$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9a…a377backed Yes	5c	1,729$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.76	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…8489backed Yes	3c	1,651$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2088…ee36backed Yes	27c	1,630$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d8a…acdcbacked Yes	6c	1,610$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.43	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.15per pick	30cpaid	-64%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	3c	1,606$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.96	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	1,569$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.6	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8a9…6da5backed Yes	10c	1,524$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes	5c	1,510$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.46	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5369…aac5backed Yes	5c	1,429$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	6c	1,411$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.87	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cdd…11bebacked Yes	7c	1,400$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	67c	1,400$942 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$458	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcaf7…cb92backed Yes	5c	1,374$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	1,364$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.93	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	73c	1,352$990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$361.7	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	26c	1,305$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.64	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	16c	1,300$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	3c	1,290$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.88	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ee…4536backed Yes	26c	1,199$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.06	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc18f…f929backed Yes	11c	1,174$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.03	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3853…2bb9backed No	76c	1,171$894 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.38	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c2…3595backed Yes	8c	1,170$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	11c	1,156$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.42	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	6c	1,128$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.06	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Yes	30c	1,115$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.25	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event