Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf70caacf7b2755e92fbec607b132f686886632aa5ebd502696b74b4fa259838

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $817,608
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $333,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $817,608 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	143,853$857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$856.97	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	26,993$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	0c	24,097$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	22,348$1,048 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,047.73	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes	0c	19,933$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.87	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	16,077$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.93	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed3a…9b17backed Yes	0c	14,151$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.6	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-40%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Yes	1c	13,675$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.83	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+445.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	12,526$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.25	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	2c	11,988$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.41	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	10,530$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.71	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,184$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	1c	8,449$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.53	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	5,877$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	3c	5,284$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.39	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	17c	5,216$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.89	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Yes	1c	4,830$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	3,575$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.17	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc413…3204backed Yes	0c	3,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	3,500$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,709$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.71	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	2,366$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.37	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8de…ed08backed Yes	2c	2,220$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19a4…4e3cbacked Yes	1c	2,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+506.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	13c	2,116$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	0c	2,090$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes	2c	2,058$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.03	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	1c	2,023$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	2c	2,006$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.33	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bff…f622backed Yes	1c	2,001$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	2c	2,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.7	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	2,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	3c	2,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.99	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes	2c	1,838$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.53	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80b5…9631backed Yes	2c	1,802$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	12c	1,738$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb63…79debacked Yes	1c	1,700$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.15	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	3c	1,556$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.12	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	4c	1,377$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	12c	1,335$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.2	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,001$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.88	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	11c	999.92$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.99	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	995.59$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7100…3c87backed Yes	3c	995.5$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.08	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	3c	882.34$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.38	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde71…070ebacked Yes	8c	800$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	6c	799.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4be…58f2backed Yes	1c	760$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	53	17%9 W · 44 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	740$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	9c	699.82$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.98	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	2c	673.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	633$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7060…29a7backed Yes	13c	625.79$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.35	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	604.64$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	14c	592$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.88	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	6c	564.78$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.34	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes	6c	550$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3068…7d29backed Yes	11c	517.27$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.9	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	15c	510.04$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.66	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de5…91c6backed Yes	4c	499.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	7c	499.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721e…9b48backed Yes	2c	479.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes	11c	454.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	6c	369.29$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	4c	344$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Yes	9c	334$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.06	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes	15c	329.24$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b15…e32dbacked Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe898…7116backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	13c	299.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	13c	299.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x804e…5e7dbacked Yes	4c	280.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6787…321dbacked Yes	7c	267$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16a1…838fbacked Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	246$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.68	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c35…5bd0backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4619…6115backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cef…0d49backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1838…6ba8backed Yes	10c	190.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Yes	10c	170$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd507…9b56backed Yes	14c	144.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f4e…0782backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e02…8a06backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee4…618ebacked Yes	14c	141.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ee…b001backed Yes	11c	120$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc441…fb83backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event