Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0b49c375eb9ed842c26cbfd2a56bee900be76a95828717f2d6a88b66a364b36

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $491,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $228,674

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $491,364 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	276,274$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.55	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes	0c	21,419$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-52%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	21,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e1b…f717backed Yes	0c	18,705$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	16,632$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.63	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	3,593$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes	1c	3,201$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	2c	2,348$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,036$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	1,683$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	1,018$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes	1c	999.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event