TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,178,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$971,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,178,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 868 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes4c38,281$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.478206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No57c35,705$20,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,404.3917322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes58c30,908$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,0002466.1%15 W · 231 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes24c26,170$6,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,308.424816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No63c23,643$14,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,672.6424873%181 W · 67 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes42c23,437$9,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,871.7666222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes39c14,644$5,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,748.128534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Yes8c14,249$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Yes13c13,295$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.781338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes1c10,917$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6129331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes34c9,762$3,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,338.1453817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes25c9,729$2,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.266322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes39c9,223$3,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,613.66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+218.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Yes17c9,151$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.341010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes59c9,144$5,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,403.483721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes35c8,633$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,056.913915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c4…7b11backed Yes44c8,063$3,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.061560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x683a…8218backed Yes70c8,020$5,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,586.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5884…9466backed Yes25c7,780$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9251118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick37cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No58c7,215$4,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,008.9554675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c6,952$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.047966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No58c6,902$3,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,910.726457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes31c6,522$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes17c6,288$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.09705.7%4 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe31…5ce8backed Yes53c6,234$3,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,280.71573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+66.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes14c6,125$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8502611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked Yes9c6,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes18c6,000$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.3445715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes42c5,839$2,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,455.8456817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No69c5,791$3,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.731242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes19c5,271$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97921211.8%25 W · 187 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf85…acc4backed Yes28c5,207$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes25c5,170$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.562968.1%24 W · 272 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0654…fabdbacked Yes62c5,064$3,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,163.71323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d8a…acdcbacked Yes43c5,044$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.171315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes10c5,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52054122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7220…6fdebacked Yes36c4,970$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x235e…da5abacked No35c4,944$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes69c4,643$3,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,201.042825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64fa…2f1fbacked Yes65c4,342$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de1…6707backed Yes27c4,260$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c4,199$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.172,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b63…1147backed Yes52c4,141$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Yes21c4,092$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.522040%8 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes28c3,994$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1003212.5%4 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-65.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes15c3,598$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.1312112.4%15 W · 106 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16d6…7268backed Yes46c3,587$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.191546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No44c3,435$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.6475122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb031…0106backed Yes5c3,210$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes19c3,170$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.9568615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes33c3,084$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0152810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes28c2,931$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.4118116%29 W · 152 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a9…05ddbacked Yes46c2,912$1,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes30c2,895$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.163116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes51c2,894$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.793810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No41c2,837$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.5723464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x03ed…4927backed Yes23c2,818$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.461435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a2b…b88abacked Yes50c2,816$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6859…3308backed Yes18c2,800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes16c2,751$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.747828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a06…d112backed Yes18c2,728$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes22c2,707$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.75016%8 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked No71c2,703$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.133836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes40c2,693$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.696417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes22c2,667$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.076020%12 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes22c2,664$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.966921.7%15 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x467b…82c3backed Yes31c2,569$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Yes27c2,558$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes25c2,534$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.91868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes36c2,531$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.2243933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes24c2,528$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.911,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x408c…8816backed Yes59c2,500$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf014…d442backed Yes47c2,267$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.211428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc2…099cbacked Yes24c2,242$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.73119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-85.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes20c2,034$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-56%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320666.1%4 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes26c2,000$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5137313.7%10 W · 63 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes28c1,981$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.112718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+217.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80b5…9631backed Yes28c1,948$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes17c1,904$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.7542312.5%53 W · 370 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No67c1,860$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.271978.9%15 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e3…bd3fbacked Yes40c1,843$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.67825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c1,833$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.5431565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes19c1,825$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.755113.7%7 W · 44 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c1,786$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.2978811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes27c1,777$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.914211.9%5 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+158.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2088…ee36backed Yes62c1,776$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5369…aac5backed Yes47c1,746$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.91723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+72.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes35c1,682$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.575909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked Yes37c1,622$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001723.5%4 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+71%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes43c1,611$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.834427%93 W · 251 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b91…f577backed Yes14c1,567$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.37119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-64.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed No50c1,535$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.216822.1%15 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b0…2f8bbacked No79c1,526$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.61258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes9c1,516$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.081816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424a…1b92backed Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes40c1,480$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.29141.8%38 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes47c1,478$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.633125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes19c1,449$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.126913%9 W · 60 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.