Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207368449de8e94da4452413d222ccf4129b1557b3c7e82699bb17a5f41d80a2

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $731,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $433,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $731,625 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	208,196$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.61	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	23,106$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.01	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	0c	14,239$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.22	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	13,476$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	3c	11,903$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	10,603$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.86	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,477$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.65	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	10,293$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.93	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	3,740$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.36	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e1b…f717backed Yes	1c	3,617$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.16	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	13c	3,557$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.84	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	2,373$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	2,323$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes	1c	2,072$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes	1c	2,058$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.51	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	10c	2,034$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	8c	2,007$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.32	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	1c	2,006$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.21	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…7569backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	60	20%12 W · 48 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	10c	1,892$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.38	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	11c	1,825$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,643$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	9c	1,430$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.69	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	1c	1,342$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,217$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	9c	1,050$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.99	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,046$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes	11c	908.91$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	4c	900$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	5c	750$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11be…803cbacked Yes	8c	638.98$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.34	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	633$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	4c	600$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d0…5407backed Yes	2c	599.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	12c	578$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.7	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes	14c	500.14$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.58	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	5c	500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	429.51$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.73	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed Yes	3c	399.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe898…7116backed Yes	9c	299.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	6c	286.08$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16a1…838fbacked Yes	7c	250$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c77…05f5backed Yes	10c	241$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…6ba8backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b7d4backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+242.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c99…76c8backed Yes	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	15cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe9d…11a8backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4619…6115backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cef…0d49backed Yes	12c	199.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd507…9b56backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e02…8a06backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3068…7d29backed Yes	11c	159.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.54	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ef…7ecbbacked Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee4…618ebacked Yes	14c	142.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	9c	138$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cdb…2922backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x017f…4026backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	9c	122.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ee…b001backed Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe683…9095backed Yes	11c	115$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.30per pick	20cpaid	+263.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	10c	111.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2e…e826backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c35…5bd0backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac0d…8bb7backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2ae7…9603backed Yes	14c	73$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event