TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xac0d…8bb7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
100
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 61 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT5872.4%42 W · 16 L+8.0wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+40.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+525%+$190.09
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$40
Nuggets vs. Lakersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$660Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$659.99
Magic vs. Heatbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
Hornets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$210
Bulls vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$180
Cavaliers vs. Mavericksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$511Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$127.83
Celtics vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$150
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$640
Wizards vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$150
Knicks vs. Jazzbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$567Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$333
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.42
Cavaliers vs. Magicbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Celtics vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$590Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$410.37
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$252
Clippers vs. Grizzliesbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+40.8%+$116
76ers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+88.7%+$47
Pacers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+26.7%+$10.55
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+55.2%+$124.5
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+233.3%+$35
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+27.2%+$32.1
Pistons vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+72.4%+$16.8
Raptors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+51.5%+$13.6
Mavericks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+51.5%+$17
Spurs vs. Celticsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+66.7%+$32
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-65.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.98
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13.8
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15.1
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$16.7
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$22.3
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+283.1%+$73.9
All 11 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+60.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$2,320
Steelers vs. Ravensbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$4,290Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+39.9%+$1,710
Seahawks vs. Falconsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,220Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+35.1%+$780
All 3 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$558Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+43.3%+$241.77
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+37%+$270
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leeds United vs. Chelsea end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$632Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+26.6%+$167.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+233.3%+$70.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. UIC Flamesbacked Northern Iowa Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+82.1%+$184.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
House passes Epstein disclosure bill on Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$15.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Qairat FK vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$509.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$43.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.