TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 80°F or higher on March 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,015 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e7f…44d4backed No1c11,392$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3724966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9fa…d002backed No21c4,050$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…42a7backed No1c1,877$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c02…eb5ebacked Yes79c1,400$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cf…0dd7backed Yes79c1,330$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd0…c466backed Yes79c1,320$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No10c824.55$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7259742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x1236…78bebacked No25c588.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.867330.1%22 W · 51 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No27c430.36$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.738840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes76c362.6$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.492,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99cb…4bc2backed Yes78c357.02$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785257.7%30 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No58c339.98$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0654143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No20c326.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc03…3c05backed No25c302.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.432157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e36…70e3backed No21c299.96$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.991926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes66c278.1$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5798738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes79c266.16$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes57c259.68$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.691,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes68c229.43$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed Yes78c179.95$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9917364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x479e…56cabacked No28c178.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.826446.9%30 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No46c175$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.512540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes72c160$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.881,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf6e…5e73backed Yes60c141.81$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.561020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed Yes72c134.76$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.338665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed Yes75c133.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.447576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7919…ca3fbacked No53c121.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.293452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No24c118.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.431,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x094e…a709backed Yes32c114$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.529260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x367b…b354backed No22c107$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d0…a9f8backed No22c106.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0645…c08ebacked Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.786338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0d…8bb7backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No21c99.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b00…a676backed No22c97.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f7…2073backed No16c93.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes59c93.15$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1533535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No31c89.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.653,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f0d…4ed5backed Yes79c89.4$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.812951.7%15 W · 14 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-31.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes60c84.61$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.018,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No38c80.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5932652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcf…503fbacked No31c73.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.672254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes70c72.45$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8658422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No21c71.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.442,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c40…fe21backed Yes71c67.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.41258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes53c67.42$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6413523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x449d…e576backed No20c67.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.211428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-53.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes79c66.67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8529469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes52c66.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.757,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes60c66.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked No20c65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No39c63.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.216434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No22c58.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.529558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2938…cce8backed No46c56.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.734517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4c…02e5backed No25c55.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes77c54.9$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4516944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No43c54.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1491967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No21c50.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.757,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7319…8920backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be2…cba5backed Yes79c49.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.482759.3%16 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick74cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed No28c49.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9913122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b8…d44cbacked Yes49c48.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.981656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked Yes78c45.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.977375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b6…aa2bbacked Yes78c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ac…5b03backed No43c43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.331330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb05c…f02fbacked Yes58c42.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.871566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3111…76f8backed Yes48c42.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.23837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4498…c984backed No50c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e76…65bdbacked No24c41.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae92…329ebacked No24c41.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.032450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.449750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked Yes72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6aa…e302backed Yes78c39.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee24…002ebacked Yes78c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x531e…a7b3backed Yes78c38.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.355048%24 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa2b…1d37backed Yes48c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66aa…5203backed Yes56c35.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.495042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.317156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeed2…ad97backed No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fde…87cebacked Yes75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb966…84d5backed Yes77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.99778.4%76 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.835362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.053,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedd6…9c2fbacked No42c29.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-65.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes77c28.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4831567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f2…03afbacked Yes58c27.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.46966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No51c27.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0713360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…95a1backed Yes74c27.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes74c27.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1633839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed Yes76c26.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3227376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c1…9615backed Yes76c26.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.333713.5%5 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-61.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes58c26.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.081442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes72c26.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.432044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf618…6a90backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55858.6%34 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd559…afc4backed Yes78c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa078…7e6abacked Yes78c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.