Token Launches · resolved market
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1e122ce82f7acd66088e2e6216ca732b38fee26cee312156e854f975c28776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,021,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,678,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,021,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,045 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked No | 18c | 760,912$139,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139,862.06 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…c168backed No | 9c | 539,229$47,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,349.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 10c | 390,000$38,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,999.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4763…45d9backed No | 24c | 333,176$81,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,253.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…a634backed No | 9c | 276,287$24,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,499.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…4206backed No | 19c | 224,456$43,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,525.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 73c | 207,794$152,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,201.3 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…5515backed No | 14c | 190,625$26,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,967.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…2f92backed No | 6c | 188,677$10,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,797.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…2be4backed No | 1c | 175,000$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 166,677$32,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,772.14 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed No | 6c | 165,705$9,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,422.55 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…51f6backed No | 14c | 161,259$22,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,162.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…a72dbacked No | 4c | 160,000$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,700 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…92d2backed Yes | 78c | 157,594$123,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,290.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…0f44backed No | 0c | 152,342$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…8e95backed No | 0c | 152,076$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…0d46backed No | 27c | 150,206$40,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,379.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked No | 14c | 149,555$21,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,426.68 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…af1cbacked No | 5c | 136,492$7,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,435.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…3586backed No | 8c | 130,436$10,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,484.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…53c5backed No | 13c | 129,867$17,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,096.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 15c | 110,896$16,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,424.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…6969backed Yes | 69c | 100,846$69,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,109.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed No | 7c | 100,000$6,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,714.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…45c6backed Yes | 67c | 91,049$61,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,891.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed No | 20c | 87,729$17,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,345.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 76c | 84,845$64,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,633.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…8c31backed No | 12c | 83,300$9,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,708.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 14c | 81,542$11,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,644.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…9c96backed No | 35c | 76,504$26,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,639.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…392fbacked No | 25c | 73,675$18,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,184.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…8b9dbacked No | 14c | 72,451$10,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,143.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…8bf8backed No | 17c | 69,923$11,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,954.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…ba78backed No | 10c | 69,810$7,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,104.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 35c | 69,339$24,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,303.82 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x835a…530abacked No | 15c | 64,583$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0172…84a4backed Yes | 61c | 64,503$39,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,862.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…9716backed Yes | 74c | 64,360$47,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,470.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9826…983bbacked Yes | 79c | 62,943$50,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,942.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed No | 14c | 62,487$8,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,764.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked No | 17c | 62,025$10,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,791.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…baa8backed No | 2c | 60,913$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…bab3backed No | 27c | 60,844$16,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,219.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 18c | 60,500$11,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,034.99 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…7774backed No | 14c | 59,064$8,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,432.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3cd6backed No | 3c | 57,396$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed No | 2c | 54,100$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 5c | 53,433$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 12c | 52,250$6,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,184.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…895cbacked Yes | 67c | 51,477$34,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,863.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec5…75fdbacked No | 7c | 51,139$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,330.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…72ebbacked No | 9c | 49,973$4,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,460.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…eb83backed No | 10c | 49,956$5,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,090.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +191.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860c…d2fbbacked Yes | 74c | 49,398$36,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,018.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfc…91b6backed No | 15c | 49,169$7,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,260 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…b035backed No | 10c | 46,926$4,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,529.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f2…4460backed No | 14c | 46,453$6,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,306.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed No | 12c | 44,895$5,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,544.91 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a91…3c5ebacked No | 27c | 44,080$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793e…baefbacked No | 23c | 44,002$10,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,179 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 10c | 43,863$4,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,264.31 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 69c | 42,911$29,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,146.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb6…a1c4backed No | 10c | 41,984$4,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,294.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 17c | 41,642$6,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,941.83 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…ed17backed No | 9c | 40,001$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,655.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d2…63dcbacked No | 14c | 39,021$5,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,510.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e28…b128backed No | 11c | 37,759$4,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed No | 30c | 37,092$11,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,139.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adc…f60dbacked No | 7c | 36,893$2,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked No | 2c | 36,688$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…2dafbacked Yes | 67c | 35,319$23,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,801.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ef…39a7backed Yes | 78c | 35,008$27,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,785.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888a…ef47backed No | 2c | 34,313$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 9c | 34,221$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.38 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…2f77backed No | 29c | 34,175$9,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,980.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…079fbacked Yes | 74c | 32,704$24,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,503.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 5c | 32,212$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e01…1453backed No | 8c | 32,166$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,733.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7311…57a5backed No | 7c | 32,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa065…40a9backed No | 12c | 31,531$3,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,806.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…1365backed Yes | 72c | 31,392$22,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,784.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked No | 35c | 31,302$11,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,101.69 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 7c | 30,448$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.94 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…c1cfbacked No | 15c | 29,894$4,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,385.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 8c | 29,305$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.71 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…3e71backed No | 13c | 28,369$3,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,693.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…6c1dbacked No | 11c | 28,000$3,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c47…eaacbacked Yes | 68c | 28,000$18,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,051.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…2dffbacked No | 9c | 27,671$2,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6010…1182backed No | 25c | 27,653$6,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,918 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…6549backed No | 26c | 27,460$7,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,084.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d0…fc42backed No | 24c | 27,416$6,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,714.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 21c | 27,136$5,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,647.78 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…2868backed Yes | 78c | 26,899$21,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,863.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 74c | 26,851$19,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,077.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d6…29f7backed Yes | 75c | 26,680$20,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,570.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…1f7bbacked No | 9c | 26,615$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…28d9backed No | 13c | 26,000$3,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,383.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 12c | 25,926$3,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.93 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? this page
- Will lighter perform an airdrop by September 30? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.