TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeefa…c780

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tweets, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 51 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$408
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$496Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$496.39
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$486
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+108.4%+$520.12
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$480
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$530
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+165.5%+$623.3
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 February 23-March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+233.3%+$70
All 15 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$800
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$45.95
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$495Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$495
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$145
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11,139Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$11,139.01
Lighter Airdrop on December 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,504Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+281.1%+$4,228.74
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$990Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$990
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST90%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.68
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$140.75
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$199.98
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$187.44
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$550
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.99
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.79
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.