Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbb4b4cafdeab45898e51558835526ba7cd4743b3d9a95afd4f68fc700c881d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fbc…1f74backed No | 0c | 30,032$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 62c | 12,000$7,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,479.85 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…d1f8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 12c | 9,724$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.54 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…ac35backed Yes | 42c | 8,219$3,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,785.83 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 39c | 7,706$2,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,738.09 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…241ebacked No | 76c | 6,620$5,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,022.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed No | 69c | 1,000$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.4 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 30c | 663.33$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.33 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…b9f4backed No | 73c | 620$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 62c | 376.27$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.28 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 55c | 370$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 50c | 355$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.17 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 69c | 350$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 63c | 315.87$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes | 29c | 303.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.92 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 56c | 243.75$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…d67cbacked No | 23c | 190$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 58c | 185$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…d114backed No | 64c | 135.16$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…0555backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d7…cf4bbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 56c | 53.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…975dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Yes | 31c | 44.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…b3edbacked Yes | 50c | 31.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…a8f1backed No | 51c | 30.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…75c9backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc265…756cbacked No | 51c | 29.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4367…5555backed Yes | 50c | 27.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e5…af74backed No | 51c | 22.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…47bebacked No | 70c | 21.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…501dbacked Yes | 50c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…f94abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.