Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43600d493c62b347be792faab1bb63fab28e2c8ab23e8abb68f4c6b21752e87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 5c | 33,796$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.8 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 3c | 12,346$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.19 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 4c | 7,400$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.71 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 10c | 6,778$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.1 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 9c | 3,744$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.06 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…57d1backed Yes | 4c | 3,165$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,441$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…bc82backed Yes | 6c | 2,013$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 28c | 1,899$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.1 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,876$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…fa24backed Yes | 11c | 1,865$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,830$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 1,824$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,609$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 14c | 1,515$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,410$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,358$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,294$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.01 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…6717backed Yes | 4c | 1,067$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…6ebfbacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4949…6aeebacked Yes | 5c | 980.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 5c | 969.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6856…2db6backed Yes | 6c | 874.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 9c | 797.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 13c | 775$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked Yes | 13c | 774.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868e…5392backed Yes | 5c | 733.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 11c | 718.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 4c | 711.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 4c | 699.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…9274backed Yes | 3c | 679$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 7c | 652.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b64…8979backed Yes | 20c | 640$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…d40bbacked Yes | 3c | 597.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…2493backed Yes | 5c | 540.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 9c | 533.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 491$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5774…a2d1backed Yes | 3c | 468.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 467.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…f4c1backed Yes | 2c | 426.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…a577backed Yes | 14c | 355.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…7158backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 13c | 311.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 5c | 244.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…8413backed No | 73c | 205.51$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 10c | 146.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…b3eabacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6b…be95backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d7…77e7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…0507backed Yes | 15c | 98.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…04c8backed Yes | 20c | 72.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…a1fcbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…f36fbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…5e1dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.