Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6e17fb36ca6fd8204efe8c1e427f21a37d854b07f2eba302f9a8d711b3c7d97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 1c | 30,600$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.12 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 4c | 25,936$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.71 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 4c | 20,540$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.94 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 4c | 10,741$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.34 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…ab2fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,577$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 70c | 7,026$4,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.64 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…ed58backed Yes | 17c | 6,092$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 6c | 3,618$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.85 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 3c | 2,941$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 4c | 2,466$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…0516backed Yes | 5c | 2,275$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +526.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 4c | 2,023$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,791$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…f51ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,643$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…d2a3backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,465$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,255$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 73c | 1,250$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 5c | 1,109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…4546backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ce…a0aebacked Yes | 40c | 935.34$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 829.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 26c | 774.94$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.12 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 750$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6877…de8abacked Yes | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 27c | 717.66$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.13 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 2c | 574.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57a…4dbbbacked Yes | 3c | 555.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 457.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…838abacked Yes | 12c | 403.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…57d1backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 71c | 308$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 6c | 296.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 19c | 279.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 253.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…a8febacked Yes | 4c | 251.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…76dcbacked No | 47c | 190$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…0e03backed Yes | 17c | 148.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 68c | 145.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…d114backed No | 67c | 134.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6573backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 13c | 95.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 58c | 94.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…14a4backed Yes | 35c | 85.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…0555backed Yes | 34c | 82.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 76c | 70.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…b390backed Yes | 15c | 67.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…a471backed No | 71c | 52.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 36c | 39.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…4aecbacked Yes | 30c | 36.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.