Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf85575833344d2ad68547566eec0bcc070b81e92291a406092a28392ce573455
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 16c | 18,181$2,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,246.07 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 75c | 16,004$11,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,923.17 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fc…821dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 14c | 5,539$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,762.18 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…ac35backed Yes | 32c | 4,276$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,929.17 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,626$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.22 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 76c | 1,393$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.61 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.11 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.33 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed Yes | 30c | 600$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.64 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 579.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.79 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 47c | 499.31$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.43 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 10c | 390.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.91 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 15c | 311$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.35 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 30c | 304.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.4 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.25 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.33 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…57d1backed Yes | 11c | 170$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 80c | 160$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…2862backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 9c | 116$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…1f74backed No | 26c | 111.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 111.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…0555backed Yes | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3931…509fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.