Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaaee5b9c0f092fd3c703e96a09e74c24c256c6e4b288e14d3c9ce0f73d302f8

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,253,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $647,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,253,577 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	74,610$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.13	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1780…1260backed Yes	0c	50,387$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.79	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	43,510$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.65	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	11c	26,457$2,869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,868.54	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	1c	25,960$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.14	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8936…79ebbacked Yes	0c	20,277$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	0c	15,532$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.15	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	15,389$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.35	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes	1c	15,009$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	14,385$1,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,209.7	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	0c	13,140$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	11,527$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	24c	10,817$2,564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,564.45	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	10,566$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$815.11	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	10,474$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.17	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	10,283$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.26	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fda…147ebacked Yes	1c	10,271$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	31c	9,485$2,934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,933.64	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	18c	9,412$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	9,000$1,497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,497.34	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	16c	8,025$1,308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,308.07	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	80c	7,781$6,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,577.19	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	6,836$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	16c	6,559$1,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,039.31	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	6,500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.57	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	10c	6,198$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.07	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	5,633$826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825.53	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	3c	5,000$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	4,818$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.27	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	4,749$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	4,506$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	2c	4,502$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.36	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	2c	4,266$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.04	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	8c	4,219$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	6c	4,176$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.85	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed Yes	29c	4,161$1,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,187.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	7c	4,129$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.32	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Yes	16c	4,120$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.03	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,895$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.38	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	10c	3,041$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes	16c	3,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.78	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	14c	2,881$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.42	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x763d…d0f2backed Yes	18c	2,825$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.99	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	69c	2,631$1,824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$806.24	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	13c	2,523$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.07	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	11c	2,381$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.13	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	2,310$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	5c	2,303$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.87	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x48f3…104fbacked Yes	14c	2,000$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.99	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.5	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	18c	1,947$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,920$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.04	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	1,863$1,417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.99	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,800$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.15	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	11c	1,752$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba9…0a15backed Yes	29c	1,737$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	20c	1,489$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes	3c	1,437$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be1…45e3backed Yes	8c	1,422$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	2c	1,418$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.01	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd018…4b19backed Yes	26c	1,348$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.1	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed Yes	2c	1,345$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.83	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	26c	1,341$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.16	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64fd…11bdbacked Yes	19c	1,337$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.47	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed Yes	15c	1,325$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.41	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	17c	1,312$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.36	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	2c	1,282$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	2c	1,191$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	14c	1,189$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.66	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	26c	1,096$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.64	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	11c	1,085$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.95	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	13c	1,065$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.49	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b24…5b1fbacked No	76c	1,043$789 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.18	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5ed9backed Yes	4c	1,023$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.78	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	5c	999.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	1c	999.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	9c	975.84$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.55	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7290…b1b3backed Yes	17c	921$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.18	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	23c	900$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.62	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	9c	898.51$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	19c	895.58$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.93	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	7c	868.86$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.59	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	24c	841.25$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.8	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x969a…e4c5backed Yes	13c	800$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	113	10.6%12 W · 101 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-56%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes	2c	787$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	769.43$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf276…0ddebacked Yes	12c	759.35$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.09	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	15c	748.02$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.2	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	10c	726.22$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.04	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f5…0febbacked Yes	14c	710$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.4	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	12c	696.31$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.07	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes	17c	689.28$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	5c	680.58$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes	18c	661.34$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.44	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	6c	654.59$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	17c	605.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event