Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac75586aaabb96e7466190b541bccbf1ef36ee129a0f7ddc3faffa2d2e4b05b6

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 6, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $477,285
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $300,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $477,285 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	23,489$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.47	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	17,345$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	15,129$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.33	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	6,100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	5,428$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	8c	4,500$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ef…340cbacked Yes	0c	4,323$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	6c	4,251$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.79	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,213$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.75	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	4c	3,787$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.63	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	14c	3,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	2,952$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.94	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Yes	6c	2,948$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.9	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,854$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	2,757$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.11	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	6c	2,670$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.22	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	2,240$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.03	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	13c	2,204$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.7	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3195…750abacked Yes	15c	1,900$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked Yes	11c	1,881$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.77	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	1,805$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.29	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes	11c	1,800$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	2c	1,762$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	1,633$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	1,500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afe…46a3backed Yes	12c	1,388$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x323b…4598backed Yes	2c	1,303$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	11c	1,300$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	2c	1,160$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	14c	1,159$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.37	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes	15c	1,153$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.02	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	13c	1,136$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.72	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2031…2325backed Yes	13c	1,128$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.64	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	16c	1,127$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.2	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	13c	1,020$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.2	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	9c	1,000$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	89	23.6%21 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	13c	999.98$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	999.97$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	2c	999.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa2…0367backed Yes	14c	988.82$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	10c	977.1$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.71	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	3c	895.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.56	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	13c	875.36$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	14c	864.98$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.1	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	8c	802.78$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	15c	800$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	3c	800$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	13c	800$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f22…f473backed Yes	6c	799.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	13c	773.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	13c	741.76$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd39b…c6c1backed Yes	3c	719.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-63%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	9c	700$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…e034backed Yes	1c	700$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+67.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	5c	670.54$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.18	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86df…eb34backed Yes	12c	654.44$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	3c	617.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4dfd…0fcfbacked Yes	14c	600$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	9c	597.06$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	15c	570$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.5	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424a…55cfbacked Yes	10c	561.02$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.1	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x721e…9b48backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fee…3071backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	11c	500$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1eb…b730backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dff…49cebacked Yes	12c	470$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	464.38$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.24	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	15c	463.33$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.54	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04c1…3b09backed Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes	13c	378.98$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.58	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb590…e409backed Yes	14c	357.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.12	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb44…6fa6backed Yes	5c	307.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	77	18.2%14 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+74.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	13c	299.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	4c	244$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	13c	237.87$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.92	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	17c	235.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4250…5c32backed Yes	9c	219.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	68	11.8%8 W · 60 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc400…eb66backed Yes	6c	219.3$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	+108.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46ef…7ecbbacked Yes	13c	202.89$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.38	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0674…d6c1backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2127…37f2backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	108	66.7%72 W · 36 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event