Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33c1ed54c278acc82f0c146b3cd12f67af08ec64bc42fecf9c529d72b2b64de8

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 6, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $490,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $294,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,950 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	48,660$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.49	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	10,970$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.5	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	3c	7,903$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.1	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	1c	6,452$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.78	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	16c	6,250$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	5,244$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.54	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…a8ecbacked Yes	2c	5,177$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	3c	4,522$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.87	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ad…47a8backed Yes	7c	4,500$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	34cpaid	+96.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	11c	4,500$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	3,933$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.4	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,494$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.29	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	15c	3,335$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.25	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	15c	3,214$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.71	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	12c	3,050$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.04	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	12c	2,958$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.91	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	5c	2,789$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.69	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	9c	2,726$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.26	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	16c	2,510$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	2,423$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.97	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	2,203$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.83	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	2,123$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.01	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	14c	2,111$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed Yes	9c	2,064$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.96	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	2,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	9c	1,850$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.4	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Yes	10c	1,820$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.8	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes	14c	1,780$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.89	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	12c	1,733$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x376f…2bb7backed Yes	14c	1,600$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	3c	1,600$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed Yes	3c	1,557$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.62	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	15c	1,490$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.53	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,488$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	1,471$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.97	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes	14c	1,420$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.8	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	15c	1,300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	1,265$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	15c	1,220$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	1,179$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.37	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	13c	1,136$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.73	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	14c	1,111$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.54	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	10c	1,056$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.96	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	1,003$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	4c	1,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	89	23.6%21 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	14c	999.98$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	15c	999.97$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa2…0367backed Yes	15c	954.23$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8b…2cf5backed Yes	2c	949.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	11c	939.99$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.8	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3195…750abacked Yes	15c	880$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	16c	782.47$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.2	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	16c	780.36$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes	14c	776.79$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	8cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	10c	736.58$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.26	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…bde0backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6faa…5a5bbacked Yes	11c	703.83$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.47	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	13c	700$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes	11c	694.28$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.37	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb558…6d3cbacked Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-76%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…7ff4backed Yes	15c	648.88$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	2c	635.62$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	13c	600$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3d…cbdfbacked Yes	13c	600$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	9c	599.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fd…1144backed Yes	17c	583$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.11	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes	13c	568.32$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.88	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f03…f0a6backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fee…3071backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe572…6241backed Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1eb…b730backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	6c	480$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	8c	438.44$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcb40…1d35backed Yes	16c	437.52$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	7c	400.94$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.07	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b26…8310backed Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	15c	400$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	16c	390.2$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.43	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c03…d9bcbacked Yes	16c	375$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04c1…3b09backed Yes	16c	375$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event