Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e15b0243d5d093a18ace0f518b7598b92753a447f8b446d27e23d59d140ec1e

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,589,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $853,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,589,918 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 521 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	220,507$3,485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,485.15	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…a525backed Yes	0c	96,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	13c	28,757$3,849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,849.33	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	26,692$3,387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,387.31	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked Yes	21c	25,647$5,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,276.41	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	12c	24,429$2,977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,976.59	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	21,176$2,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,010.41	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	3c	15,625$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed Yes	22c	14,187$3,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,112.37	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	13,895$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.05	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	9c	12,264$1,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,081.9	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes	43c	12,233$5,252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,252.33	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	10,837$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.12	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	11c	10,788$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,146.61	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	21c	10,519$2,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,253.57	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	10,387$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$864.09	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	20c	10,100$2,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,012.96	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	25c	8,820$2,169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,169.5	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	23c	8,712$1,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,994.13	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	8,700$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.76	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	34c	8,082$2,777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,777.07	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	10c	7,312$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.69	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	24c	7,090$1,694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,694.26	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	12c	7,020$872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$872.29	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	9c	7,018$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.71	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed Yes	26c	6,931$1,834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,834.5	69	31.9%22 W · 47 L	+4.6wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+81%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	6,570$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	12c	6,347$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.11	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	12c	6,181$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.95	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	5,849$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.53	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Yes	1c	5,711$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.98	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	9c	5,609$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.61	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44b…edabbacked Yes	13c	5,350$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.35	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+852.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	12c	5,344$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	13c	5,250$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.12	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	35c	5,144$1,786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,786.25	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	5,138$3,465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,672.89	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7fa…b1d3backed Yes	9c	5,040$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,030$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.02	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede6…ac4dbacked Yes	1c	5,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	5c	4,967$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.77	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	4,866$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.67	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	5c	4,849$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.94	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	4,715$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.71	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No	65c	4,241$2,757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,483.78	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	4,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	18c	3,908$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.73	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	12c	3,831$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.82	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	11c	3,663$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.72	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9215…9c92backed No	72c	3,600$2,592 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf977…4f9abacked Yes	28c	3,600$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,007.96	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Yes	1c	3,470$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec0…19acbacked Yes	44c	3,358$1,474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,474.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Yes	47c	3,341$1,558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,558	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+206.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	16c	3,078$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.37	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	33c	3,054$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	12c	3,000$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.4	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	29c	2,982$859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$859.11	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	13c	2,936$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.08	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	3c	2,763$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.56	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	27c	2,721$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	1c	2,700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.58	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	4c	2,532$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.29	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	2,526$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	38c	2,526$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$952	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	2,520$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Yes	32c	2,515$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes	25c	2,500$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.94	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	2,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	38c	2,474$941 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940.87	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	20c	2,463$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.24	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	17c	2,439$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.88	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	2,400$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.97	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd449…08e7backed Yes	5c	2,372$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.22	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	21c	2,368$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.46	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7d7…4decbacked No	69c	2,186$1,505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$680.73	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+48%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	9c	2,069$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.99	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes	37c	2,063$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$764.7	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	16c	2,045$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.77	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,000$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	7c	1,941$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.66	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	8c	1,900$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.7	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Yes	27c	1,891$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.86	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	48cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	27c	1,860$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.64	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	5c	1,843$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.48	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	8c	1,777$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.74	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	7c	1,745$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.09	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	2c	1,716$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.58	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	8c	1,696$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.73	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	37c	1,660$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.01	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	16c	1,633$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.06	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	13c	1,620$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.48	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	1,567$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	69c	1,518$1,053 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$464.46	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6201…d386backed Yes	15c	1,500$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.5	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	1,500$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	23c	1,498$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.38	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	1,496$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	32c	1,492$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.16	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8034…2463backed No	80c	1,432$1,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.96	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event