Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb9b1cb704ec2399eb8a20b9affecf6bc23c095b0baaf18ce6871e7e7596898a

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,401,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,333,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,401,058 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 688 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	77c	40,022$30,826 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,195.57	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	26c	25,963$6,630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,333.74	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	15c	21,901$3,206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,695.08	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bd5…5a1fbacked No	0c	21,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	16c	19,528$3,090 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,438.38	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	36c	18,617$6,788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,788.28	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	44c	15,808$6,911 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,897.19	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	24c	14,052$3,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,656.2	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	76c	13,730$10,493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,236.41	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed No	0c	13,525$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.96	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	29c	11,073$3,242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,831.69	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	28c	10,178$2,870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,307.73	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b49…72cebacked No	59c	9,495$5,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,633.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	54c	9,410$5,095 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,315.09	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	72c	9,383$6,788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,788.21	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,441$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,396.53	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	72c	7,345$5,284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,284.24	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	26c	7,116$1,819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,296.9	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	22c	6,732$1,454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,278.81	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	6,693$4,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,495.51	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	30c	6,136$1,825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,310.85	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	16c	5,905$938 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,966.38	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc304…97b4backed No	21c	5,000$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb520…6e24backed No	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…7085backed No	56c	4,945$2,768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,767.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	4,509$491 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,018.63	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed Yes	36c	4,256$1,525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,731.44	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	80c	4,230$3,379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$851.03	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed Yes	61c	4,087$2,503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,584.76	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	14c	4,027$576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,451.18	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed Yes	18c	4,000$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,280.19	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes	47c	3,865$1,832 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,032.86	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes	63c	3,801$2,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,425.14	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes	27c	3,529$970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,559.44	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	37c	3,509$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,208.72	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	42c	3,493$1,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,042.63	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	30c	3,462$1,052 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,409.24	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	57c	3,337$1,912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,911.79	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4d…8cc3backed Yes	57c	3,323$1,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,423.38	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	24c	3,179$759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,420.1	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	18c	3,153$575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,577.94	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	13c	3,152$423 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,728.97	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	72c	3,144$2,258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.59	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d7…4decbacked Yes	66c	3,098$2,054 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,043.75	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+48%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x630d…3a93backed No	9c	3,011$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.63	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	6cpaid	+895.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x551a…7a72backed No	10c	3,000$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	6cpaid	+688%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	55c	2,721$1,494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,226.59	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No	11c	2,678$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.94	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+9.2wins	+0.37per pick	11cpaid	+624.5%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	19c	2,675$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,175.47	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	2,659$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,639.93	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	27c	2,580$697 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,882.63	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Yes	53c	2,500$1,322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,177.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4233…ca01backed No	48c	2,461$1,189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,189.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8c…26e9backed No	76c	2,392$1,817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,816.5	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	20c	2,324$471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,853.05	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	3c	2,300$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.3	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a5e…7765backed Yes	77c	2,298$1,768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530.06	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	56c	2,280$1,288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$992.52	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	18c	2,279$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,875.63	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	35c	2,247$791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,455.91	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdafe…c673backed Yes	79c	2,238$1,777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.96	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd018…4b19backed Yes	19c	2,221$431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,790.71	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No	16c	2,214$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.12	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	36c	2,107$766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,340.85	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	40c	2,085$824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,261.16	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	51c	2,079$1,068 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,011.19	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	34c	2,058$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,368.49	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44b…edabbacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,970	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+852.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	67c	1,986$1,333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.62	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4083…308fbacked No	40c	1,902$758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$758.2	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	32c	1,898$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,288.8	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7c…3ecabacked No	8c	1,844$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.62	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	42c	1,773$742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,030.24	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	18c	1,767$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,443.04	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	46c	1,657$765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$891.46	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	38c	1,610$618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$991.75	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	64c	1,568$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$568.45	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	58c	1,568$915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.63	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes	73c	1,565$1,138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427	118	34.7%41 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,556$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,512.73	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd5e…271bbacked Yes	80c	1,540$1,231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.08	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92fa…7d02backed No	12c	1,520$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked No	78c	1,500$1,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,169.99	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	39c	1,491$575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$916.09	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	46c	1,490$691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$799.31	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	55c	1,450$792 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$657.28	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dca…c48dbacked Yes	67c	1,427$955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$472.04	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	16c	1,400$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,183	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	10c	1,400$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,254.4	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb8…43d1backed No	10c	1,400$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-51%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	38c	1,400$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$871.8	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d6…7268backed Yes	72c	1,373$984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.89	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a30…f47dbacked Yes	21c	1,364$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,072.45	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	29c	1,350$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$954.09	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	56c	1,314$736 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$578	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	1c	1,260$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,246.01	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked No	13c	1,258$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.85	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x898d…a68ebacked Yes	44c	1,230$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$689.21	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510d…f7d8backed Yes	50c	1,209$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$609.12	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	18c	1,202$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$985.72	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event