Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42a5d359a118a3b4f6b436b3983826d811fc0ee1e4dc5cb802b5c7ecc81d41fc

Rebuilt 28 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,939,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,388,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,939,375 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	367,217$4,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,085.9	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes	1c	45,500$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	30,087$1,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,156.73	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	14cpaid	+119.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	18,925$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,067.49	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	17,400$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.3	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f8…4d62backed Yes	10c	17,066$1,657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,656.85	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	14,310$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.15	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	12,833$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.82	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	12,488$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.75	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e33…d733backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	0c	10,100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	9c	9,705$849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$848.74	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	7c	9,133$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.88	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	11c	8,402$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	8,243$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.23	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	8,185$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.3	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	7,043$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.25	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b18…42ecbacked Yes	1c	6,988$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	0c	6,980$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	6,753$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.15	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	6,300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	2c	6,092$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.72	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	5,452$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.33	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec8…3cb5backed Yes	17c	5,415$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$919.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	4,971$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.37	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	4,921$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.7	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7749…5c5bbacked Yes	13c	4,741$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	3c	4,391$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.87	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	4,345$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.39	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	9c	4,246$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.72	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	2c	4,035$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.87	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	17c	3,400$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.61	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Yes	16c	3,079$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.71	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34cb…159ebacked Yes	1c	2,969$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.42	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	2,716$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.35	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…87cdbacked Yes	4c	2,700$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.34	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5ed9backed Yes	2c	2,652$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	8c	2,635$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7290…b1b3backed Yes	1c	2,602$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed Yes	14c	2,365$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.21	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	12c	2,219$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.1	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	2,148$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.2	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	2,140$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.79	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	5c	2,100$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd05b…237fbacked Yes	1c	2,090$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes	2c	2,066$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.44	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d28…4c03backed Yes	9c	2,050$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	2,001$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x107c…3ef7backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	2c	1,911$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	2c	1,879$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	4c	1,820$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.06	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	1c	1,720$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,655$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.23	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	7c	1,603$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.61	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc20…06f9backed Yes	2c	1,595$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	3c	1,552$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.57	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	5c	1,497$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.88	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed Yes	7c	1,478$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	155	20.6%32 W · 123 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeefd…c93abacked Yes	2c	1,324$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes	5c	1,299$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.46	135	17%23 W · 112 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50ab…dca6backed Yes	14c	1,289$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	12c	1,200$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.88	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	11c	1,115$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.34	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes	7c	1,110$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.34	55	20%11 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	1,060$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f8…1092backed Yes	2c	1,020$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.48	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+93.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb016…ddaebacked Yes	10c	1,009$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.27	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+428.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ac…47c2backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	3c	1,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	10c	961.34$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.15	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	6c	951.8$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.47	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	7c	852.1$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.11	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes	2c	788.43$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	5c	784.83$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.23	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes	2c	754.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	114	21.9%25 W · 89 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3a…c2c0backed Yes	9c	716.43$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.76	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	5c	705.35$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.15	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	2c	701.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	2c	700.34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	4c	700.11$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.74	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c4…a309backed Yes	2c	700$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+150.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	15c	672.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Yes	2c	650$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	3c	608.77$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…259dbacked Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6201…d386backed Yes	15c	600$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.2	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes	11c	593.73$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.32	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	9c	590$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.88	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fe…79f4backed Yes	4c	589.01$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b19…f4adbacked Yes	10c	557.27$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9501…360fbacked Yes	8c	555.82$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	9c	543.89$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.96	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	5c	540.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.27	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	3c	530.02$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc61…6eedbacked Yes	6c	509.18$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.94	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event