Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8eab112e4db08dccc629ecced62aa64481fa976f823b3004b815425a7d9798c

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,004,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $397,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,004,677 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	128,168$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.51	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	4c	43,857$1,943 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,943.14	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	25,998$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797.51	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	4c	21,537$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.32	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	21,331$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.92	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	20,420$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.51	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	2c	18,784$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.6	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	17,400$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.2	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f8…4d62backed Yes	16c	17,157$2,725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,724.64	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	4c	14,055$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.63	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	0c	13,200$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	11,050$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	8,139$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.06	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	7,739$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.8	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	7,295$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	7,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	5c	6,877$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.79	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	6,461$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.54	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	2c	6,231$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.98	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	2c	5,640$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.32	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	5,463$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.51	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	5,413$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.62	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	4,960$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.62	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	8c	4,856$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.3	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	2c	4,784$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.02	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	2c	4,635$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.68	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cb…159ebacked Yes	1c	4,392$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.2	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	4c	4,342$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.11	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e3a…c2c0backed Yes	6c	4,232$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.31	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5be…8997backed Yes	6c	3,771$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.74	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	7c	3,520$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.57	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	3,511$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb79…85bebacked Yes	1c	3,432$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	3,279$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7290…b1b3backed Yes	0c	3,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	7c	2,877$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	2,810$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.15	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes	4c	2,606$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.8	179	24.6%44 W · 135 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	16c	2,500$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.6	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	4c	2,227$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.92	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	2,008$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	2c	2,001$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.02	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	2c	2,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x813e…5ed9backed Yes	5c	1,938$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	1,935$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.73	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	3c	1,900$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.7	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	17c	1,899$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.88	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	4c	1,700$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.97	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	16c	1,647$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.4	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5be1…45e3backed Yes	8c	1,519$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.26	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd018…4b19backed Yes	16c	1,512$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.58	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	10c	1,500$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.98	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Yes	19c	1,402$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	12c	1,318$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.15	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes	2c	1,264$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.68	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01fe…79f4backed Yes	6c	1,223$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.56	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	14c	1,200$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.08	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	2c	1,153$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.31	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	1,100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	5c	1,034$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.87	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	2c	1,025$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	10c	1,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	14c	984.05$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.61	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	886.31$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.04	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Yes	12c	867.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	4c	816$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.9	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes	3c	790.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes	4c	788.43$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.05	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	17c	784.74$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.78	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes	4c	754.87$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.15	114	21.9%25 W · 89 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes	4c	715$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.74	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	7c	710.06$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.15	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	3c	705.65$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1c4…a309backed Yes	5c	700$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	16cpaid	+150.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	2c	700$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	699.97$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	14c	697.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	7c	672.31$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.86	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xeefd…c93abacked Yes	3c	667.42$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes	3c	656.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-78%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	4c	654.88$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.11	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc20…06f9backed Yes	2c	654.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	5c	642.21$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.62	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	17c	604.35$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…259dbacked Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44b…edabbacked Yes	2c	600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+852.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	8c	588.26$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.16	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	12c	582.09$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	12c	578.22$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.02	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	561.11$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	4c	551.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	10c	540$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.76	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes	6c	530.02$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.68	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…bed7backed Yes	5c	500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4781…f97bbacked Yes	10c	500$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	3c	499.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event