Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x862aae1615944c56049fb468480c79f1d925daffc2d2db20e6c32fac8dc73b8a

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $831,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $435,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $831,505 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	27,111$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.44	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4896…fe47backed Yes	0c	16,951$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	0c	14,187$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.75	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	13,613$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.84	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7abd…47d1backed Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	17c	10,000$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	16c	8,340$1,330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,329.52	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	6c	7,645$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.34	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	0c	5,830$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.83	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	5,734$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.44	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	15c	5,370$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.5	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	5,000$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.14	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	19c	5,000$950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	20c	4,929$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	1c	4,699$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.07	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	20c	4,500$879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$879.05	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	11c	3,994$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,648$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.59	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	3,345$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.87	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb56a…fc96backed Yes	0c	3,023$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	14c	2,858$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.98	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	2,795$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.53	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,640$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.24	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…e034backed Yes	1c	2,280$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+67.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	12c	2,270$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.84	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	2,070$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.44	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	9c	2,010$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.8	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	2c	2,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.7	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	20c	1,942$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.3	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	16c	1,850$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.41	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	12c	1,815$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.95	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf276…0ddebacked Yes	2c	1,785$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	17c	1,765$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	12c	1,628$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	4c	1,606$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.92	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	1,596$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.94	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	1,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	15c	1,500$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.99	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	1,421$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.3	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	1,400$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.7	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	1c	1,375$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	1,246$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.13	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	6c	1,178$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.36	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	10c	1,136$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.63	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	8c	1,111$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.88	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	14c	1,030$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.94	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	4c	1,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe69e…61d2backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	999.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa2…0367backed Yes	12c	999.51$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.94	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	10c	973.27$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.33	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3195…750abacked Yes	14c	942.86$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be1…45e3backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	10c	900$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x239a…8e55backed Yes	2c	866.11$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	3c	842.71$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	12c	831.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	7c	800$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	18c	794.44$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	13c	784.98$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.15	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	8c	773.34$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.81	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	5c	740$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	14c	729.8$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes	9c	720$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e4…0e38backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-5.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	6c	711.74$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.04	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	20c	700.45$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.09	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	12c	695.5$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.46	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	19c	693.33$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.4	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe249…1100backed Yes	2c	682.76$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	9c	666.67$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	661.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1eb…b730backed Yes	9c	641.74$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.17	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	19c	631.58$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6201…d386backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	15c	609.46$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.58	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	10c	599.98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	10c	599.96$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes	14c	585.71$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d85…4c7abacked Yes	14c	583.3$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.66	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x424a…55cfbacked Yes	12c	566.67$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fee…3071backed Yes	9c	536$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.88	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	18c	517.71$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.19	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes	14c	510$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.3	77	18.2%14 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+74.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	13c	499.97$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	481.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event