Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed5d2808f6f5cbb816ace621849023e28398e0a86c4efcd02e4a1effa60e2e3f

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 6, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $207,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $130,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,753 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	19,691$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,869$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.67	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	1c	2,974$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	2,919$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.55	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	2,514$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.4	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,374$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.34	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes	1c	1,887$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	7c	1,507$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.62	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	9c	1,423$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.37	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	4c	1,126$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.31	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	3c	1,119$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.18	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	1,020$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.61	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	8c	999.99$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	89	23.6%21 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	6c	777.23$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.52	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5670backed Yes	6c	769.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+124.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	4c	698.24$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.93	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes	5c	673.67$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.68	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	5c	599.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb59f…dbedbacked Yes	8c	501.18$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a56…6a0dbacked Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa2…0367backed Yes	10c	476.41$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.7	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dff…49cebacked Yes	5c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33a…1e9fbacked Yes	5c	399.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	99	26.3%26 W · 73 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	3c	378.48$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a20…8c94backed Yes	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	5c	302.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	8c	299.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadd8…8f4bbacked Yes	4c	276$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x386c…389ebacked Yes	9c	214.44$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb590…e409backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	8c	181.22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…f863backed Yes	7c	180$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	6c	166.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e87…b3ccbacked Yes	8c	128.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event