Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27032628c0ca879048b4178949fc172f541a7dbdaf6ffd6f1ec659e33cd2f5c1

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $935,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $690,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $935,193 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	162,193$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.33	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	32,877$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.71	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	17c	13,577$2,340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,339.88	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	14c	10,238$1,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,413.59	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	0c	7,900$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	7,500$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.34	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	6,636$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.67	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	5c	6,408$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.85	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	5,857$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3067…b8e5backed Yes	4c	5,661$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.32	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	5,447$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	20c	5,000$975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$975	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	9c	4,573$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.4	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	8c	4,533$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.46	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	4,055$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.09	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	19c	4,000$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.88	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	16c	3,654$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	2c	3,042$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.99	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes	12c	2,670$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.27	55	20%11 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	1c	2,670$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98c8…9081backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8658…6b51backed Yes	0c	2,464$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0a…b7d2backed Yes	5c	2,396$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x609e…a64fbacked Yes	4c	2,222$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,170$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.03	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	19c	2,110$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.65	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf276…0ddebacked Yes	4c	2,009$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.15	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	8c	2,000$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	17c	2,000$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	20c	2,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	1,850$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.6	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	12c	1,824$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,792$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.22	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	1,701$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	17c	1,651$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.25	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes	8c	1,600$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.5	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	9c	1,579$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	10c	1,521$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.21	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	7c	1,500$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe73…8b9cbacked Yes	9c	1,475$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	3c	1,469$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.14	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	9c	1,441$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.51	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	2c	1,366$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x433b…f372backed Yes	2c	1,206$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	6c	1,200$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.7	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	9c	1,149$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.31	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	1c	1,142$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	1,027$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.64	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	19c	1,018$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.19	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90a9…5ab5backed Yes	2c	1,016$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3a…03bebacked Yes	6c	1,012$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	1,000$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	15c	1,000$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	5c	1,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	7c	999.98$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	979.64$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.42	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0d…3ec5backed Yes	15c	975$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.6	32	25%8 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34c2…1540backed Yes	21c	953.87$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.17	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	19c	908.52$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.92	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	903$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	5c	900$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	8c	889.09$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.58	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa817…f9d6backed Yes	5c	884.19$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	845.06$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	7c	812.37$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.38	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	800$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.93	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	17c	785.23$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.59	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	735.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	4c	707.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d9…11b2backed Yes	7c	700$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	7c	699.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	13c	696.42$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.12	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Yes	15c	689.45$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.42	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc60…997cbacked Yes	14c	681.42$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.84	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked Yes	12c	656.63$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.8	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	20c	650$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.62	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	10c	626.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	8c	621.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	3c	599.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	10c	599.99$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	5c	584.69$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.46	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	560.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes	6c	540$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Yes	6c	521.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed Yes	10c	520.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a06…160abacked Yes	19c	515.46$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	7c	514.21$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.3	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes	4c	513.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	17.9%10 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	21c	505$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	8c	504.72$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	8c	503.88$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	9c	500.28$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.83	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2b…3994backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdd…e736backed Yes	9c	499.08$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event