Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9777c49233ec213daef4771214b88dd6534820bfb32e772284a38e0dc8154323

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 6, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $354,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $185,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,909 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	11,019$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.09	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42ef…340cbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,774$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,916$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.95	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c81…243fbacked Yes	0c	5,884$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	2c	4,000$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	9c	3,377$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.17	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	10c	3,219$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.83	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	9c	3,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	10c	2,682$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.68	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	1c	2,623$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.24	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	2,252$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.12	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	10c	2,232$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.13	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	2,095$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.71	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Yes	10c	2,074$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.62	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe63d…87fcbacked Yes	12c	2,027$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.6	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	1,727$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.36	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	3c	1,600$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	1,552$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.27	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	11c	1,500$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.5	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,150$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	10c	1,136$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.64	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dfd…0fcfbacked Yes	11c	1,130$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.04	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	9c	1,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.5	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd39b…c6c1backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-63%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	13c	999.99$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	89	23.6%21 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	934.44$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaa2…0367backed Yes	13c	905.38$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.32	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	7c	800$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfba8…500abacked Yes	8c	649.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3195…750abacked Yes	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	10c	599.97$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce70…22dabacked Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+73.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb59f…dbedbacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d0…4d6ebacked Yes	11c	465$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.15	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f22…f473backed Yes	6c	330$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	10c	320$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes	9c	268.64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.98	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	259.12$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb590…e409backed Yes	11c	254.98$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dff…49cebacked Yes	10c	236.83$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0674…d6c1backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb885…4b0dbacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8481…d87abacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x755b…f4f5backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	13c	200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.33	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7dd…bc48backed Yes	13c	199.23$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes	13c	195.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	90	12.2%11 W · 79 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc400…eb66backed Yes	10c	183.51$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	+108.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc2…878abacked Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a42…f553backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0704…6ab8backed Yes	11c	160$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c03…d9bcbacked Yes	13c	149.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x952f…ff63backed Yes	11c	143.73$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x615a…4aa4backed Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	118$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa92…5899backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	10cpaid	+226.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34e6…e673backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-77%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33a…1e9fbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	99	26.3%26 W · 73 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84f9…5d85backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	12c	99.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d9…7a9ebacked Yes	14c	85.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event