Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad80444fcc03cf62f072b79a9f0238c29abee65c187fdd15189d727e1c2644f4

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,200,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $561,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,200,886 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	236,162$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.83	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	8c	71,756$6,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,081.8	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	15,750$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.3	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	15,602$1,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,279.91	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	15,539$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$801.86	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed Yes	4c	14,995$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.71	69	31.9%22 W · 47 L	+4.6wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+81%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	14,590$1,113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,113.26	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	2c	11,838$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.88	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	11,290$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	3c	10,900$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.8	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	10,500$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	4c	10,063$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.27	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	9,378$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.69	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	12c	9,213$1,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114.78	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	5c	8,815$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.07	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	10c	8,751$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843.77	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Yes	1c	8,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	2c	7,297$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.69	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	6c	7,207$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.23	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	7,086$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.77	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	12c	7,079$849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$849.48	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,024$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.87	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5be…8997backed Yes	10c	6,801$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.52	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	23c	6,294$1,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,474.8	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	5c	6,045$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.94	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	27c	5,751$1,575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,575.18	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	20c	5,427$1,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,096.36	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	4c	5,361$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.65	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	2c	4,856$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.01	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	11c	4,787$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	4,165$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.62	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,966$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.1	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	16c	3,613$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.81	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	10c	3,550$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.64	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	1c	3,502$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	22c	3,470$771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.34	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	3,025$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.64	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	20c	2,854$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.72	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeef7…2655backed Yes	0c	2,854$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	2,778$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.19	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	5c	2,739$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.68	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,622$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	26c	2,500$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.37	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	2,349$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.68	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	5c	2,321$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.06	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	2,264$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.32	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	78c	2,130$1,652 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$478.6	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	4c	2,094$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.82	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	11c	2,005$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.92	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	23c	1,854$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.39	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb016…ddaebacked Yes	5c	1,779$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.86	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+428.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	6c	1,669$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.84	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	10c	1,610$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.07	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	1,605$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.41	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ef…acb1backed Yes	2c	1,599$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34cb…159ebacked Yes	1c	1,525$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes	13c	1,523$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.22	55	20%11 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	8c	1,467$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.22	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	14c	1,422$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.12	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	24c	1,417$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.24	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	2c	1,400$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.61	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	6c	1,347$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.19	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	6c	1,339$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.72	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	20c	1,265$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.24	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	10c	1,241$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.34	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	5c	1,218$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.62	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e3a…c2c0backed Yes	16c	1,203$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.02	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc20…06f9backed Yes	4c	1,169$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.42	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49df…d594backed Yes	3c	1,138$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes	6c	1,116$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.08	179	24.6%44 W · 135 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce59…4c64backed Yes	27c	1,100$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7673…80a1backed No	73c	1,100$801 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	16c	1,096$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.07	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Yes	5c	1,080$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	21c	1,067$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,059$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.44	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Yes	5c	1,041$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Yes	10c	1,001$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	3c	1,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa960…14d9backed Yes	27c	1,000$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…5431backed Yes	7c	1,000$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed Yes	27c	1,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.5	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	2c	999.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c79…d6a0backed No	73c	999.99$729 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	20c	999.7$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.7	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	25c	934.15$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.78	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	4c	932.73$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	9c	894.17$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.26	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	14c	875.37$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.22	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	23c	846.42$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.68	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf7…aba5backed Yes	29c	832.93$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	20c	814.78$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.95	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	813$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	29c	811.7$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.43	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	25c	808.26$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	29c	801.64$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.73	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes	13c	788.43$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.69	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd10a…00dcbacked Yes	5c	782.69$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	4c	780$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.98	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	11c	773.14$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.34	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event