Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb77b3704baed93661f2dbeb1971321a0f3b6598630cb0b23439f1ff66b3db6b6

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 6, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $579,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $303,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $579,992 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	29,812$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.86	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	19,980$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.2	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	14,947$1,516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,515.75	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	12c	9,860$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177.71	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	1c	9,524$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.84	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	8,352$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	0c	6,819$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	18c	6,252$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	4,737$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.58	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	16c	4,150$666 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.86	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	9c	4,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…4fc0backed Yes	17c	3,851$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.73	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed Yes	7c	3,800$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe73…8b9cbacked Yes	3c	3,742$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	15c	3,243$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	6c	2,655$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.06	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	11c	2,600$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	2,500$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.57	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	2,429$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.93	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,424$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.21	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	15c	2,185$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.68	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	2,128$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.1	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	14c	2,086$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfa6…da4fbacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8114…085abacked Yes	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	127	14.2%18 W · 109 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	1,750$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.42	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	14c	1,699$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.73	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	13c	1,632$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.67	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x376f…2bb7backed Yes	15c	1,600$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	17c	1,536$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b76…31f3backed Yes	15c	1,533$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes	13c	1,500$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	13c	1,371$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.23	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	15c	1,300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed Yes	8c	1,271$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	4c	1,262$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	2c	1,200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes	14c	1,182$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.49	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	13c	1,138$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.8	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	13c	1,136$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.72	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x018c…448abacked Yes	1c	1,121$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	5c	1,100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	1,047$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	15c	1,000$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.58	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb303…205bbacked Yes	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.2	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed Yes	18c	1,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	14c	986.31$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa2…0367backed Yes	14c	970.66$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	11c	966.04$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.73	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	16c	900$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	898.14$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.63	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	2c	890.63$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x763d…d0f2backed Yes	17c	887.09$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa769…843ebacked Yes	17c	882.35$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	16c	866.11$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.5	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c5e…41e3backed Yes	18c	858.83$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes	16c	821.94$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.51	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa47f…cf75backed Yes	2c	809.94$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	149	24.2%36 W · 113 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	774.14$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.35	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…7ff4backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77ac…47c2backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6201…d386backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	15c	700.47$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.07	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	6c	700$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	13c	699.82$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.98	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x339f…79f0backed Yes	14c	699.68$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.08	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6af1…c00cbacked Yes	15c	686.8$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	15c	670$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54dd…4e39backed Yes	4c	670$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.97	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.39per pick	11cpaid	+167.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed Yes	17c	665.36$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.38	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	647.25$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.85	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6faa…5a5bbacked Yes	12c	644.59$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.78	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fd…1144backed Yes	16c	635.48$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.63	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	17c	621$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.57	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	16c	620$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.2	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86df…eb34backed Yes	14c	620$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.8	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	4c	608.81$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe249…1100backed Yes	2c	601.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…0919backed Yes	16c	600$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	14c	600$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	12c	600$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	14c	599.99$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	14c	599.99$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe69e…61d2backed Yes	17c	596.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa79…ca21backed Yes	15c	593.4$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.01	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a06…160abacked Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	22cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	14c	548.53$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes	14c	541.61$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.39	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	9c	520$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3daa…380dbacked Yes	20c	507.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-3.7wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event