Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdaf3dd8e58a975c841f94fbb7633ac6938e857ceb7dfdacb2c79d5786be71bc

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,837,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,777,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,837,413 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 488 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x813e…5ed9backed Yes	0c	155,000$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	136,814$4,185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,185.25	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	78,780$1,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,105.66	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	6c	66,741$4,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,138.83	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4083…308fbacked Yes	0c	48,665$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9c…5191backed Yes	0c	41,701$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e12…56a6backed Yes	0c	38,857$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	1c	33,026$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.88	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	5c	31,511$1,561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,561.3	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	2c	31,058$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.02	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1780…1260backed Yes	2c	30,078$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.71	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc044…de04backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	1c	20,037$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.99	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…8546backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	18,102$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.99	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	6c	16,686$943 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$943.09	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbca…8107backed Yes	0c	16,232$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed Yes	11c	16,079$1,834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,834.33	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	2c	15,606$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.75	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d2…2ef7backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x630d…3a93backed Yes	5c	14,800$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$755	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	6cpaid	+895.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x551a…7a72backed Yes	5c	14,800$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$755	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	6cpaid	+688%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8163…3258backed Yes	1c	14,275$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	1c	14,212$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	13,947$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.43	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	17c	13,809$2,403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,403.15	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes	2c	13,380$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	23c	13,255$3,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,011.09	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	23c	11,842$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7c…3ecabacked Yes	2c	11,635$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.21	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	9c	11,176$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,049.92	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…1de5backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	3c	10,836$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.2	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	74c	10,636$7,829 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,806.15	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	10,239$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.06	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1f…f3c4backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbdc…37f7backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080a…b2e0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5286…025cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	8%4 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	5c	9,895$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.33	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	2c	9,625$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	5c	8,800$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.6	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	26c	8,703$2,232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,231.59	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	22c	8,647$1,925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,924.79	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4d07…51bebacked Yes	0c	8,560$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes	6c	8,535$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.26	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+91.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	5c	8,078$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	8,020$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes	11c	7,962$887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$886.95	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed No	79c	7,615$6,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,615.1	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa63c…b262backed Yes	0c	7,610$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.03	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	4c	7,578$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.85	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	13c	7,479$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.22	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	4c	7,476$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	7,381$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.4	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	6c	7,351$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.21	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	2c	7,285$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.29	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	3c	7,079$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.28	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,055$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.11	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee3…023abacked Yes	9c	7,024$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.59	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	12c	6,579$793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.06	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	5c	6,404$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.96	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fda…147ebacked Yes	5c	6,127$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	8c	6,086$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.77	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f4…80f6backed Yes	0c	6,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	18c	5,996$1,084 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,084.39	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	5,943$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.63	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	2c	5,893$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.04	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes	2c	5,866$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.72	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	14cpaid	+90.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	1c	5,841$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.9	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5520…40d7backed Yes	0c	5,808$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49df…d594backed Yes	0c	5,055$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb33c…4ac3backed Yes	0c	5,007$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	+153.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4228…e9d8backed Yes	5c	5,000$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d0…525cbacked Yes	3c	5,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5645…d800backed Yes	0c	4,793$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	4,582$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.89	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	5c	4,523$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.72	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	9c	4,502$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	5c	4,500$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.51	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	7c	4,486$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.13	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	11c	4,380$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.34	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	4,362$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.22	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x794c…5be9backed Yes	2c	4,139$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	4,135$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes	4c	4,037$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+413.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3a…c2c0backed Yes	6c	3,932$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.46	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	3c	3,780$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes	2c	3,752$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.02	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Yes	12c	3,717$438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.53	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	6c	3,607$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Yes	4c	3,491$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf38e…397bbacked Yes	4c	3,300$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	31c	3,279$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,009.78	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafbb…7525backed Yes	2c	3,216$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	3,214$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.42	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x861d…68ccbacked Yes	1c	3,124$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	11c	3,109$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.28	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	3,013$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes	1c	3,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.02	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event